Jinggoy, Miriam top Senate picks

MANILA, Philippines - Fourteen out of 66 individuals have a statistical chance of winning seats in the Senate if elections were held today, with Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada again leading the list of probable winners, the latest survey by Pulse Asia showed yesterday.

Pulse Asia said Estrada’s overall voter preference of 46.7 percent translates to a statistical ranking of first to second places.

Estrada is followed closely by Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago with 42.4 percent. She is ranked first to third.

In second to seventh places is former Senate president Franklin Drilon (38.6 percent) while 3rd to 7th places are shared by Senators Pia Cayetano (37.2 percent), Ramon Revilla Jr. (36.6 percent), Manuel Roxas (36.3 percent) and Makati City Mayor Binay (36.6 percent).

Sen. Jamby Madrigal (31.6 percent) and Atty. Aquilino Pimentel III (31.4 percent) are in 8th to 13th places, respectively.

Three former senators are ranked 8th to 14th – former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) director-general Ralph Recto (30.6 percent), former senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5 percent), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) chairperson Vicente Sotto III (28.2 percent).

Completing the list of probable winners are TV host Willie Revillame (27.4 percent), who ranks 8th to 15th, and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6 percent), who is in 10th to 15th places.

Other personalities who were included in the survey were Lakas-Kampi-CMD vice-presidential bet actor Edu Manzano (24 percent), Senators Richard Gordon (21.1 percent) and Manuel “Lito” Lapid (19.3 percent), Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (18.4 percent), former senator Juan Flavier (15.7 percent), Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III (15.3 percent) Muntinlupa Rep. Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon (14.9 percent);

Businessman Joey de Venecia (14.7 percent), Tourism Secretary Joseph Ace Durano (13.7 percent), former senator Ernesto Maceda (13.4 percent), former Surigao del Sur Rep Prospero Pichay (12.4 percent), Makati City Rep. Teodoro Locsin (11.7 percent), Surigao del Norte Gov. Robert Ace Barbers (11.3 percent), Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno (10.1 percent), former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Remulla (9.3 percent), former Presidential Management Staff chief Michael Defensor (9.2 percent), Grace Poe (8.8 percent), Health Secretary Francisco Duque (7.2 percent), Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap (6.6 percent);

Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca (6.5 percent), Parañaque Rep. Roilo Golez (6.2 percent), Quezon City Mayor Feliciano Belmonte (5.8 percent), detained Army Brig. General Danilo Lim (5.8 percent), Bayan Muna Rep. Satur Ocampo (5 percent), beauty expert Cory Quirino (4.7 percent), Speaker Prospero Nograles (4.4 percent), Education Secretary Jesli Lapus (4.1 percent), Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel (3.9 percent), Quezon Rep. Lorenzo Tañada III (3.9 percent), San Juan Rep. Ronaldo Zamora (3.9 percent), Nacionalista Party spokesman Adel Tamano (3.5 percent), Bayan Muna Rep. Teddy Casiño (3.3 percent), Gabriela Rep. Liza Maza (3.2 percent), Camarines Sur Gov. Lray Villafuerte (3 percent);

Former Laguna Gov. Joey Lina (2.8 percent), former Education secretary Florencio Abad (2.8 percent), Technical Education and Skills Development Authority head Boboy Syjuco (2.6 percent), former labor undersecretary Susan Ople (2.6 percent), Finance Secretary Margarito Teves (2.4 percent), former social welfare secretary Dinky Soliman (2.4 percent), former public works secretary Hermogenes Ebdane (2.3 percent), Black and White Movement convenor Leah Navarro (2.2 percent), detained Marine Col. Ariel Querubin (1.9 percent), former agrarian reform secretary Horacio “Boy” Morales (1.7 percent), former Bukidnon Rep. Nereus Acosta (1.7 percent), former Akbayan Rep. Loretta Ann Rosales (1.5 percent), former Iloilo Rep. Rolex Suplico (1.3 percent), Agusan del Sur Rep. Rodolfo Plaza (1.2 percent), Press Secretary Cerge Remonde (1.2 percent), University of the East College of Law Dean Amado Valdez (1 percent), Naga City Mayor Jessie Robredo (0.8 percent) and Ang Ladlad chairperson Danton Remoto (0.2 percent).

More focus on presidentiables

Pulse Asia said a “negligible percentage” of Filipinos (five percent) is not inclined to vote for any of the probable senatorial candidates whose voter preferences are probed in this survey.

Among the probable winners, no improvements in voter preferences are recorded between August and October 2009, it said.

Instead, levels of electoral support for the following decline during this period – Enrile (-5.5 percentage points), Recto (-7.0 percentage points), Madrigal (-7.3 percentage points), Drilon (-7.7 percentage points), Cayetano (-9.4 percentage points), Revilla (-9.8 percentage points), and Roxas (-12.0 percentage points).

The 13 probable winners for whom comparative data are available lost an average of 5.9 percentage points in their voter preferences between August and October 2009, Pulse Asia said.

Meanwhile, among those outside the winners’ circle, the most marked changes in voter preferences are recorded by Manzano (-10.9 percentage points), Flavier (-6.4 percentage points), Guingona (-5.2 percentage points), Gordon (-5.0 percentage points), and Durano (-4.9 percentage points).

The survey also found that because more media attention is currently being devoted to the presidential and vice presidential contests, the level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009.

Three months ago, 57 percent of Filipinos already had a complete senatorial lineup for the May 2010 elections but now fewer Filipinos (40 percent) report having a complete senatorial list, it said.

“And while Filipinos were naming a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial candidates back in August 2009, the mean figure is now down to eight while the median figure has declined to nine,” the survey outfit said.

The non-commissioned survey, conducted from Oct. 22 to 30, used face-to face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above.

Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a plus or minus two percentage points error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.