Villar tops expanded poll

MANILA, Philippines - Pulse Asia released yesterday the results of its latest non-commissioned survey that showed Sen. Manny Villar on top of the list of presidential aspirants for the 2010 elections.

The Pulse Asia’s August 2009 “Ulat ng Bayan” national survey found that one in four adult Filipinos or 25 percent would pick Villar if the elections were held now.

Villar also topped the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey for the second quarter of 2009 on presidential candidates, receiving 33 percent of votes of 1,500 respondents.

Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted from July 28 to Aug. 10, used face-to-face interviews with 1,800 adults, higher than the usual 1,200 respondents used by the survey firm. Pulse Asia’s survey with more respondents has a lower margin of error.

The respondents were asked, “Of the people on the list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections of 2010 were held today and they were presidential candidates?” The respondents were provided with 15 names of probable presidential candidates.

Pulse Asia’s new survey showed former President Joseph Estrada and Vice President Noli de Castro in second place with 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Senators Francis Escudero and Manuel Roxas II also scored double-digit presidential voter preferences of 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Pulse Asia said the other individuals included in the presidential probe obtained voter preferences of six percent or less.

They were Sen. Loren Legarda (six percent), Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (four percent), Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando (one percent), Sen. Richard Gordon (one percent) and Jesus is Lord founder Bro. Eddie Villanueva (one percent).

The other presidential aspirants who received less than one percent of the respondents’ votes were: Pampanga Gov. Ed Panlilio (0.4 percent), Chief Justice Reynato Puno (0.3 percent), Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro (0.2 percent), Olongapo City Councilor John Carlos “JC” de los Reyes of the Ang Kapatiran Party (0.1 percent) and environmentalist Nicanor Perlas (zero).

Pulse Asia said one percent of the respondents provided other names not included in the survey. Three percent were undecided.

Pulse Asia said the August 2009 survey had 15 names while the May 2009 presidential probe included 16 individuals.

Pulse Asia said Villar made the only significant change (+11 percentage points) in the overall presidential voter preferences between May and August 2009.

Estrada posted a marginal improvement in his overall voter preference (+4 percentage points) while Escudero experienced a slight decline in the level of public support for his presidential bid (-5 percentage points), Pulse Asia said.

At present, two or more individuals share the lead across geographic areas and socio-demographic groupings, the survey firm said.

In Metro Manila, Villar is the most favored presidential bet (25 percent), with Escudero (22 percent) and Estrada (19 percent) close behind.

About the same percentages of those living in the rest of Luzon are supportive of Villar (22 percent), Estrada (19 percent), De Castro (16 percent), and Escudero (15 percent).

Among Visayans, Villar recorded the highest voter preference (30 percent), with De Castro (22 percent) in second place.

In Mindanao, Estrada and Villar received the highest voter preference at 26 percent.

In the best-off Class ABC, Escudero (30 percent) and Villar (28 percent) led the list of presidential candidates.

Those in the most numerous Class D are most supportive of Villar (25 percent) and Estrada (19 percent), while those in the poorest Class E are most inclined to vote for Villar (23 percent), Estrada (23 percent), and De Castro (22 percent).   

Most Filipinos have preferred bet

Meanwhile, the survey also found that virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate.

About one in four Filipinos (25 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s many accomplishments.

On the other hand, one in five (20 percent) Filipinos rationalized the choice of candidate based on the preferred bet’s pro-poor orientation.

More than one in 10 (12 percent) cited the candidate’s being helpful to others, especially overseas Filipino workers (eight percent), as the reason for supporting a candidate’s presidential bid.

Other reasons cited in supporting a candidate’s bid is his/her not being corrupt (six percent), proven capability in governance (four percent), goodness (four percent), being principled (three percent), and intelligence (three percent).

The survey has sampling error margins of plus or minus two percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said the firm usually uses a higher number of respondents in their pre-electoral surveys because “it has lower margin of error.”

Holmes said the 1,800 samples will be used only in Pulse Asia’s pre-electoral surveys and they will return to their normal sample size of 1,200 respondents after the election period.

Holmes said the margin for sampling error for national-level proportions is plus or minus three percent, but now it is reduced to plus or minus two percent.

The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey’s results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll’s reported results are close to the true figures, that is, the figures for the whole population.

Pulse Asia said among the major developments immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were the prolonged hospitalization due to terminal illness and subsequent death of former President Corazon Aquino, the last State of the Nation Address (SONA) of President Arroyo, and Mrs. Arroyo’s latest visit to the United States.

Other factors included the unexplained growth in the President’s wealth since assuming the presidency in 2001, the increasing number of probable presidential candidates for the May 2010 elections, the controversies surrounding the selection of two new members of the Supreme Court and this year’s National Artist awardees, and the loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure caused by two powerful typhoons.

On the economic front, inflation in July fell to a 22-year low.

Meanwhile, Villar said he is grateful for the people’s continuing support for him.

Smarting from the attacks against him at the Senate over the C5 Road controversy, Villar said the Pulse Asia survey is proof of confidence in his ability to lead the country.

“I am thankful for the people’s vote of confidence as shown in the latest Pulse Asia survey,” Villar said.

Villar sees that this advantage over his rivals would propel their attacks against him.

“With this survey result, I expect our political rivals to continue with their attacks. But I am certain the people are discerning and are not easily swayed by obvious demolition jobs against me,” said Villar.

He said the attacks would not discourage him from doing what he started, especially for the improvement of the condition of the majority of Filipinos who are poor.

Escudero also welcomed the latest survey results. He said the people would judge all candidates during election day, and that those who got high ratings shouldn’t get swell-headed, while those with low ratings shouldn’t be devastated. With Christina Mendez