AFP anticipates series of clashes with rogue MILF guerrillas

ZAMBOANGA CITY – Fighting with rogue Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) guerrillas would likely escalate in the coming weeks as troops are encircling the area where fugitive rebel commander Abdulrahman Macapaar, alias Commander Bravo, and his forces are holed up in the jungles of Lanao del Sur.

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Alexander Yano said the increase in armed clashes with the MILF is expected since the military is closing in on the main rebel group.

“The continuing skirmishes show we are on track,” Yano said.

He cited reports from 1st Army Division chief Maj. Gen. Nehemias Pajarito indicating the presence of heavily armed guerrillas hiding near the town of Piagapo, Lanao del Sur.

Pajarito told Yano that the troops have encountered small pockets of resistance from the rebels deployed as blocking forces.

The military said at least three major encounters were reported in the area.

Pajarito said the latest fighting occurred Tuesday where two soldiers were killed and six others were wounded in encounters against the followers of Bravo, in Hudalo, Piagapo, Lanao del Sur.

“These are indicators that Bravo is there, and that is why we are there to get him,” Pajarito said.

On the other hand, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said a full-scale war with the MILF is unlikely to occur even with the ongoing military offensive against the recalcitrant rebel forces.

The ICG warned, however, that some hardline MILF commanders could join rebel factions now engaged in pitched gunbattles with government troops.

“Another possibility is that some of the few dozen foreign, mostly Indonesian jihadis in Mindanao could decide to undertake retaliatory action,” and aid MILF commanders Bravo and Ameril Umbra Kato, the ICG said.

“A major urban bombing could (in) turn trigger a much wider conflict,” the ICG warned, in referring to the Indonesian-based Jemaah Islamiyah terror network.

While returning to the peace table remains an option for the government and the MILF, any final agreement remains a long way off, the ICG said in a policy briefing paper.

“Neither side has the resources to engage in sustained combat,” the think tank said.

The ICG noted that the “generally moderate” leadership of the MILF had already ruled out sending more fighters into battle in Mindanao.

MILF chief peace negotiator Mohagher Iqbal, on the other hand, said the two rebel commanders might face sanctions from the front’s central committee for leading the attacks.

Iqbal said the MILF central committee is already winding up its investigation into the attacks and could recommend the possible sanction against Kato and Bravo.

“If they are found to be committing excesses, that is for our internal consumption requirement. We need to investigate our erring members,” he said.

Iqbal cited that in 2006, Kato was suspended for a year for leading attacks against government forces in their area of operation, which according to him was a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

AFP spokesman Lt. Col. Ernesto Torres said the action by the MILF against their erring members would not halt or affect military efforts to bring Kato and Bravo to justice.

President Arroyo suspended peace talks with the MILF after Bravo and Kato launched deadly attacks on Central Mindanao, leaving scores of civilians dead and burning schools and homes last August.

More than 670,000 civilians have been affected, many of them still camped out in evacuation centers where sanitation and food remain perennial problems.

The two rebel commanders launched the attacks after the Supreme Court issued an injunction against a land deal that would have given the rebels control over an expanded Muslim autonomous region.

Early this month, the court issued a final ruling against the agreement, saying it was “a whimsical, capricious, oppressive, arbitrary and despotic exercise” of government’s power to negotiate.

The ICG said that if and when the talks resume, the government must “do a better job of heading off potential spoilers, through consultation and delivering what it promises.”

“The halt in negotiations this time is thus more serious,” the ICG said, noting that the root cause was “deep suspicions about the substance” of the deal.

“Meaning that it will be very difficult, even if negotiations resume, to go back to this agreement as the starting point of the next round,” the report said.

“The MILF says the agreement is a done deal and it will not countenance any renegotiation,” it said, noting that with Mrs. Arroyo’s six-year term expiring in 2010, the issue was also becoming increasingly political. – With Lino dela Cruz, James Mananghaya