UP prof warns climate change could cut RPGDP by as much as 20%

MANILA, Philippines – A University of the Philippines professor yesterday warned that climate change could cause about 10 to 20 percent loss in countries’ gross domestic product (GDP), especially in low-income nations.

Rex Victor Cruz, dean of the College of Forestry and Natural Resources of the University of the Philippines-Los Baños, said, however, the amount of damage brought about by climate change depends on the economic conditions of the countries.

“Low income countries will likely sustain GDP losses,” Cruz said during the climate change media workshop at the Traders Hotel in Pasay City.

He said climate change would also make it difficult for countries to meet the medium-term development goals (MDGs), adding that a three-degrees Celsius increase in temperature could put millions of people at risk for hunger.

“Poor countries will have limited options and lower resilience in relation to climate change impact,” Cruz said. “Rich countries respond better and recover much faster.”

Cruz said climate change could have a multiplier effect in terms of worsening poor countries’ already bad condition.

In a related development, Suppakorn Chinvanno, project coordinator and advisor of the water resource research group at the Southeast Asia START Regional Center in Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, blamed governments in Southeast Asia for their lack of support for scientists involved in climate change research.

“Everyone has to take the blame. But the governments must have to take the blame for not supplying the technology that provide the scientists access to information,” he said.

Chinvanno also said that Southeast Asia has only a handful of scientists involved in research on climate change, resulting in limited knowledge about this global issue in the entire region.

“We lack local data in Southeast Asia,” he said.

Some 26 journalists from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathered yesterday for a two-day seminar workshop on climate change.

The event was organized by the Philippine Science Journalists Association, Inc. in collaboration with the International Development Research Center Regional Office for Southeast and East Asia based in Canada, and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia based in Singapore.

With the theme “Reporting Climate Change: Creating a Climate of Change in Southeast Asia,” the activity aims to improve media coverage of climate change issues and to develop and foster greater collaboration between and among journalists and climate change experts.

No clear cut solution

Meanwhile, a new United Nations-backed report classified the Philippines among eight “Climate Resilient Cities” that need to enhance resiliency to threats emanating from climate change and slash greenhouse emissions to mitigate the consequences of future natural disasters.

With eight of the world’s 10 most populous cities situated near rivers or seas and already being exposed to such hazards as flooding, earthquakes and typhoons, the report offers suggestions on how to enhance resiliency to threats emanating from climate change. It also warned that the cities hardest hit by climate change will be the ones least prepared.

“Climate Resilient Cities” – jointly produced by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery  (GFDRR) – serves as a primer for East Asia and the Pacific to curb vulnerability to climate change and bolster disaster risk management.

“Ultimately, the cities hardest hit by climate change will be the ones least prepared,” said Neeraj Prasad, the World Bank’s Lead Environmental Specialist for East Asia and the Pacific.

“Global warming points towards more frequent and extreme weather events, so managers must take action to protect their cities sooner rather than later,” the report urged.

It said that for every one meter rise in sea levels, there will be a corresponding two percent drop in GDP due to the decrease in fresh water, damage to agriculture and fisheries, disrupted tourism and reduced energy security, among other consequences.

According to the report, the surging concentration of people in cities also steps up their susceptibility to climate-related damage.

The study cited East Asia as one of the world’s most vulnerable areas. “We have seen events like the 2004 tsunami, and recently Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and a typhoon in the Philippines,” said Jitendra J. Shah, who coordinates the World Bank’s environmental program in Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand.

“Climate Resilient Cities” calls on cities to strategize to adapt to climate change and to mitigate the consequences of future natural disasters. It also appeals to them to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

Some measures the report recommends are simple, such as raising awareness of global warming’s impact, promoting the use of bicycles and increasing the use of energy-efficient public transport vehicles. Others entail legislation and increased investment, including providing fossil fuel alternatives and improving public infrastructure.

“Every city is different,” Prasad said. “There is no cookie-cutter solution to climate change impacts. It’s important that you are able to anticipate the likely impacts on your city and make the decision to deal with that.”  – Pia Lee-Brago