El Niño on the way out; Pagasa monitoring development of La Niña

With the El Niño phenomenon on the wane, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) warned the public yesterday that the La Niña phenomenon might hit the country in the coming months.

"There is a probability that there would be a La Niña phenomenon. In the next three months we will have a more definite forecast if the La Niña phenomenon will push through," Pagasa climatology and agrometeorology branch chief Dr. Flaviana Hilario said.

La Niña is Spanish for "the little girl" and refers to abnormal cold ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, characterized by too much rainfall.

El Niño, "the little boy," refers to a weather phenomenon associated with the unusual warming in the equatorial Pacific.

Hilario said that as of now, it is still too early to say if the looming La Niña phenomenon, which will start out weak, will remain so or if it will intensify into a moderate or strong event.

She said studies done by Pagasa have not yet indicated if the country will experience stronger typhoons due to the weather phenomenon.

The Philippines had earlier experienced a weak La Niña phenomenon, which occurred from late 2005 to early 2006. This event triggered flash floods and landslides, including the massive landslide in Barangay Guinsaugon, St. Bernard town in Southern Leyte in February last year, which killed an estimated 2,000 people.

In April 2006, a weak El Niño phenomenon took over as Pagasa observed that rainfall in most parts of the country was "below to way below average" except for some areas that continued to experience above average rainfall, but this amount was "no longer significant to trigger landslides or cause floods."

The El Niño event is now on its way out, according to Pagasa, which said sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been "decreasing" since January.

The country’s rainfall conditions during the month of February were generally "way below to below normal in most parts of the country with patches of above normal and near normal rainfall over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Romblon and the Davao provinces," Pagasa said.

Slightly warmer air temperatures were also felt in most parts of the country.

This month’s rainfall conditions are expected to be near normal over eastern Luzon, with patches of above normal rainfall in Cagayan and Isabela, the weather bureau said.

Rainfall is likely to be below normal over eastern Luzon, while the rest of Luzon will be near normal. Most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will experience below normal rainfall conditions.