SWS: Non-admin bets lead Team Unity in Senate race, 9-3

Non-administration candidates are leading their rivals in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, 9-3, with independent re-electionist Sen. Francis Pangilinan topping the list of potential winners.

The survey results showed that 56 percent of the 1,200 respondents nationwide supported Pangilinan, a candidate of the Liberal Party (LP), one of several political parties grouped under the Genuine Opposition (GO).

Former senator Loren Legarda of GO is in second place with 54 percent support, followed by Senate President Manuel Villar (GO-Independent) with 52 percent.

GO had adopted Pangilinan, along with Villar, but junked the former last week after he repeatedly refused to join its campaign rallies and sorties.

Re-electionist Sen. Panfilo Lacson (GO) and Taguig-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (GO) are tied in fourth and fifth slots with 43 percent, while Sen. Ralph Recto of Team Unity (TU) and House Minority Leader Francis Escudero of GO are tied in sixth and seventh places at 37 percent.

They are followed by TU’s Vicente Sotto III with 31 percent. Tied in ninth and 10th slots are Tarlac Rep. Benigno Aquino III and former senator John Henry Osmeña, both of GO. They were voted by 30 percent of the respondents.

The other independent candidate in the winners’ circle is detained former senator Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, who is in 11th place with 29 percent, while re-electionist Sen. Joker Arroyo of TU is in 12th with 28 percent.

According to SWS, "within bounds of the statistical error are Edgardo Angara (13th) with 27 percent and Aquilino Pimentel III (14th) with 26 percent." The survey had a statistical error of plus/minus three percent.

In an official media release, SWS lumped Pangilinan and Honasan with the opposition, "in the sense of non-administration," putting its survey results at 9-3.

Pimentel is followed by Mike Defensor (TU, 21 percent), Sonia Roco (GO, 19 percent), Juan Miguel Zubiri (TU, 18 percent), Richard Gomez (Independent, 15 percent), Cesar Montano (TU, 15 percent); Vicente Magsaysay (TU, 14 percent), Prospero Pichay Jr. (TU, 12 percent), Antonio Trillanes IV (GO, 12 percent), Teresa Aquino-Oreta (TU, 12 percent), and Luis Singson (TU, seven percent).

Behind Singson is Joselito Pepito "Peter" Cayetano, Rep. Cayetano’s namesake, who was voted by six percent of the respondents.

TU’s Sultan Jamalul Kiram got two percent.

Meanwhile, Presidential Legal Adviser Gabriel Claudio said that the results of the most recent Pulse Asia survey conducted in Manila was expected, primarily because it was commissioned by the political opposition.

The survey indicated that voters in the city of Manila will pick nine opposition senatorial candidates out of the 12 Senate slots.

Claudio is confident that the candidates of Team Unity would later dominate the surveys and eventually win majority of the Senate seats because of the strong machinery of the administration.

He said this machinery would manifest itself when the campaign period for the local officials starts on March 29.

"This is when we expect the machinery of the coalition, made up of six major political parties which includes Lakas, Nationalist People’s Coalition, Liberal Party and others will go into full throttle and this will make a great difference as far as the momentum of the coalition candidates is concerned," Claudio said.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) heard the two disqualification cases filed by the Taguig-Pateros congressman against his namesake yesterday.

Joselito Pepito Cayetano, a candidate of the Marcoses’ Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, and his lawyer-spokesman, Oliver Lozano, another KBL candidate, were no-shows in the hearing.

Lozano, supported by only one percent of the respondents in the SWS survey, was tied with several candidates in the 34-58 slots.

The survey was conducted between Feb. 24 and 27, with 300 respondents from Metro Manila, 300 from other parts of Luzon, 300 from Visayas, and 300 from Mindanao.

The respondents were "voting age adults."

The survey results were released yesterday by SWS to subscriber-senatorial candidates and political groups.

In its statement, SWS said it conducted three surveys in 2006 of possible senatorial winners but disclosed their results only to their clients.

It said the results of its November 2006 poll, using the list in last month’s survey, was 8-3 for the first 11 candidates and a triple tie for 12th place among two candidates from the opposition and one from TU, thus a potential outcome of either 8-4 or 9-3 in favor of the opposition.

"The possibility of a 10-2 outcome as of February 2007 indicates a slight gain to the opposition over the last three months," it said.

This is the exact opposite of the prediction of the administration that the result in May would be 10-2 or 8-4 in favor of Team Unity.

SWS said the gainers from November 2006 to February were: Pangilinan, who moved from third to first; Villar, from seventh to third; Cayetano, from tied for fifth to tied for fourth; Escudero, from 10th to sixth; Aquino and Osmeña, both from tied for 12th to tied for ninth; Arroyo, from tied-12th to solo 12th; and Roco, from 17th to 16th.

It said candidates who lost ground were Legarda, from first to second; Lacson, from second to tied-fourth; Sotto, from fourth to eight; Recto, from tied-fifth to tied-sixth; Honasan, from tied-eighth to 11th;

Pimentel, from tied-eighth to 14th; Angara, from 11th to 13th; Pichay, from 18th to 22nd, due to the entry of fresh candidates Zubiri, Gomez, Montano, Magsaysay, and Coseteng.

It pays to be a big spender

Pichay, who spent P33.4 million for ads on television and radio during the first 12 days of the campaign, expressed elation over the results of the recent SWS survey.

Pichay said he made a big jump to 22nd-24th slots since the November survey of the same poll-taking firm.

"I am happy that on the second week of the campaign, more people have become aware of me and are trusting me with their votes considering that in the November 2006 SWS survey, I was only ranked from 46th to 51," he said.

Yesterday’s official statement from SWS, however, said Pichay slid from 18th to 22nd-24th due to the entry of fresh faces.

Pichay said his awareness rating had "pole-vaulted" from 30 percent in November to 84 percent last month.

He expressed confidence that his showing would improve "dramatically" in the next surveys.

Pichay attributed his dramatic increase in the ratings to his spending heavily on political ads.

He proved that with enormous resources, having to invest heavily in expensive television commercials, a candidate seeking a Senate post gets the advantage, at least insofar as popularity surveys indicate.

AC Nielsen Media Research Philippines reported on Feb. 28 that among the senatorial candidates from both the administration and opposition camps, Pichay spent the most with P33.4 million in the first two weeks of the campaign, or at least P16 million a week.

SWS also reported of the Filipino adults’ awareness of Pichay, whose slogan is "Pichay (lettuce): Itanim sa Senado," increased to a high of 84 percent recently, from a mere 30 percent in November last year.

The same survey also showed that people who wanted him to win surged from two percent late last year to 12 percent last February.

The Surigao lawmaker enjoyed a 45 percent rating in Pulse Asia’s Jan. 25-29 survey.

Pichay expressed confidence that in the next surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia, his ranking would dramatically improve as more people would become aware of his candidacy and accomplishments. – With Delon Porcalla, Helen Flores, Marvin Sy