GMA to get slight poll lead if Roco withdraws

President Arroyo would have a slim lead over Fernando Poe Jr. in the May presidential election if Raul Roco withdraws from the race, according to an independent opinion poll.

However, Mrs. Arroyo would remain statistically tied with the opposition front-runner.

But if Sen. Panfilo Lacson pulls out, Poe will regain his commanding lead over Mrs. Arroyo, the poll showed.

Roco and Lacson are consistently far behind Mrs. Arroyo and Poe in opinion polls. Christian preacher Eddie Villanueva barely has voter support.

The survey, conducted by respected pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS), has a error margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and at a 95-percent confidence level.

An SWS survey of 1,400 voters, conducted from March 21 to 29, showed that 32 percent would vote for Poe and 31.4 percent for Mrs. Arroyo, giving Poe a .6-percent lead.

Of the 15 percent who said they would vote for Roco, 5.6 percent and 4.3 percent would vote for Mrs. Arroyo and Poe respectively if Roco withdraws.

That would reverse Mrs. Arroyo’s current .6-percent deficit against Poe in the last SWS survey and give her a .7-percent lead.

That is still a statistical tie, however.

But if Lacson withdraws from the contest, five percent of those voting for him said they would vote for Poe and 1.4 percent for Mrs. Arroyo.

That would boost Poe’s current .6-percent lead over Mrs. Arroyo to 4.6 percent, the SWS said.

Three percent of the 11.2 percent voting for Lacson said they would give their votes to Roco.

The latest SWS survey confirmed an earlier belief by the political opposition that the anti-Arroyo vote would be split if they have more than one candidate challenging Mrs. Arroyo in the May presidential race.

After a few failed attempts, Poe and Lacson’s camps are reportedly still considering plans to present a united front against Mrs. Arroyo.

But it is still unclear if that meant that one of them would drop out.

In January, the two sides tried to forge a merger and present a single opposition presidential candidate to avoid splitting the anti-Arroyo vote.

But the talks failed after Lacson and Poe refused to back down from their presidential bids although both agreed to submit themselves to a selection process.

Hopes for opposition unity were further dashed as opposition parties were split on whether to field Lacson or Poe as the standard-bearer.

The Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), the country’s largest opposition party, was divided into two factions — one supporting Poe and the other Lacson.

Lacson’s faction has asked the Supreme Court to reverse its recent decision declaring Poe as the LDP’s official candidate, saying the party’s president, Sen. Edgardo Angara, unilaterally adopted Poe as their standard-bearer even though the actor-turned-politician is not a party member.

Lacson is reportedly also open to have another go at the unification talks.

The two factions of the LDP have been locked in a bitter quarrel over who should be the opposition standard-bearer in the May elections.

Poe is backed by the faction of Angara while Lacson’s candidacy is backed by LDP secretary-general Makati Rep. Agapito Aquino.

Early this month, a scheduled meeting between Poe and Lacson also fell through. Both camps engaged in a word war and swapped accusations why the talks failed to materialize.

Sen. Loren Legarda, Poe’s vice presidential candidate, said she volunteered to broker the Poe-Lacson talks.

Lacson blames Poe’s handlers for blocking efforts to unify the opposition. Poe reportedly shied away from the meeting after Lacson leaked the information to the media.

But with Legarda as mediator, Poe said he was willing to sit down and talk with Lacson.

Even if the opposition unites, however, Poe emphasized Legarda would still be his running mate, complicating unity efforts.