According to the SWS’s Social Weather Survey conducted from Nov. 8 to 24, 25 percent of respondents said they would vote Poe for president if the elections were held today.
De Castro was close behind with 24 percent of some 1,200 respondents all over the country saying they would vote for the first-term senator who was also the vice presidential choice of 29 percent of respondents.
President Arroyo placed fourth with 17 percent behind her former education secretary Raul Roco, who gained the nod of 18 percent of respondents randomly selected from Metro Manila, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Ten percent of respondents said they would vote for opposition Sen. Panfilo Lacson while the remaining six percent said they were still undecided on who to vote for in the May 10, 2004 elections.
The survey was commissioned by Polistrat International, a Filipino risk analysis company, and ended two days after Poe announced his presidential bid.
But De Castro remained at the top of favorite vice presidential candidates, although it was a decline from SWS’s September survey.
De Castro was followed in the vice presidential race by Senators Loren Legarda-Leviste, 23 percent; Ramon Magsaysay Jr., 11 percent; Gregorio Honasan, Juan Flavier and Franklin Drilon, 10 percent each; Robert Barbers and Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando, four percent each, with six percent undecided.
SWS president Mahar Mangahas said the survey result indicates a significant gain for Poe, popularly known as "FPJ," who was the presidential choice of only 14 percent of respondents in September.
On the other hand, De Castro, who was the presidential choice of 28 percent of respondents in September, suffered a drop in his popularity.
But presidential campaign spokesman Michael Defensor said the survey was conducted at the height of the impeachment of Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. which affected the President’s rating.
Defensor said Mrs. Arroyo is expected to surpass other presidential aspirants in the next few months when voters are fully informed of the issues and the respective platforms of the presidential candidates.
In the end, Defensor said, the voters will have a "holistic perception" of each candidate and will vote for the President who has solid accomplishments to back up her candidacy.
But Polistrat president Jose Leviste Jr. said popularity is still a top consideration in Philippine elections and that Filipinos "are a star-struck people."
"People tend to vote with their hearts, not with their heads. I guess that explains the FPJ phenomenon," said political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan.
Gatmaitan said it will be difficult for Lacson to dislodge the presidential race leaders, noting that his ranking has not changed significantly from previous polls.
Estrada called The STAR last night and predicted the certain victory of Poe, who he said is already building up an early margin against his rivals in the elections.
He said he was "not surprised" when Poe beat his more politically experienced rivals in the survey despite the vaunted campaign juggernaut of Mrs. Arroyo’s Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats party.
"In the history of our presidential elections, I got the biggest and widest margin and I think only FPJ can break that," Estrada told The STAR.
"I don’t see anybody (who) can beat him. No amount of cheating can beat Ronnie Poe," he said.
Estrada recalled his own presidential bid in 1998 when attempts to cheat him failed because his opponents could not match the "overwhelming" votes he got.
"They cheated by as much as two million votes but they saw they could not stop my landslide victory, napagod din (they also got tired) so they stopped," Estrada said. "They never learned their lessons."
Estrada said the "Erap factor" will add to Poe’s imminent victory "because we have basically the same following, the Filipino masses."
"The more they insult Ronnie Poe, the more people will vote for him," he said.
Up to now, however, Estrada said Poe has not called him or visited him at his new detention at the Army camp at Camp Capinpin in Tanay, Rizal.
"(But) even if we don’t see each other, we understand each other," Estrada said.
Estrada said he is willing "to debate" with any Arroyo administration official on any issue.
"My question now to the people of the administration: Are we better off today than during Erap’s time? I can debate with any economist of the administration, I’m willing to face them," Estrada said.
But Estrada said his challenge does not necessarily apply to Mrs. Arroyo, who is an economist.
"As a gentleman, I don’t pick fights with women. I love them and do not fight with them," he said, followed by a loud laugh. — With Marichu Villanueva