Roper ASW survey puts GMA ahead

President Arroyo would win by a slim margin over her closest rival if the presidential election were held today, results of a commissioned survey released yesterday showed.

The opinion poll was conducted from Oct. 21 to 27 by Roper ASW-Asia Pacific, a New York-based consultancy firm for a local business daily, Malacañang said in a statement yesterday.

Of the 300 Metro Manila residents surveyed, 20.5 percent said they would vote for Mrs. Arroyo and 19.6 percent said they would pick former senator Raul Roco.

Sen. Noli de Castro got only 9.4 percent, opposition Sen. Panfilo Lacson got 9.8 percent and action star Fernando Poe Jr., 5.7 percent.

Over half or 52.2 percent approved of the way Mrs. Arroyo was doing her job while 33 percent believed otherwise, the same survey showed. Nearly 15 percent were undecided.

Over 48 percent said they had trust in the President, 35 percent said they had none and 16.5 percent could not give an answer.

A third or 31.9 percent also said they believed the country’s struggling economy would improve within the next six months, while 24.1 percent said things would worsen.

Forty-four percent were undecided.

A third of the respondents or 29.7 percent said they believe that their household income would likewise improve within the next six months, while 23.3 percent believed theirs would not. The rest were undecided.

The 300 survey respondents represented a cross section of the metropolis’ 12 million population, Malacañang said.

The poll was conducted days after the brief visit of US President George W. Bush last Oct. 18.

Mrs. Arroyo is one of the top five preferred candidates cited in recent local surveys but, so far, she has trailed the competition, particularly De Castro and Roco, who have consistently topped opinion polls.

She withdrew from next year’s presidential race last December, saying she wanted to concentrate on putting the country’s poverty-stricken economy back on its feet.

It was believed that she quit because of her sagging popularity ratings.

But she changed her mind in October, citing a clamor for her to rejoin the presidential race, which is so far a three-way contest between her, Roco and Lacson.

Action star Fernando Poe Jr. said he will also make a run for the presidency, he told The STAR in an exclusive interview last week.

Poe said he would run under the banner of the opposition identified with deposed President Joseph Estrada, who is Poe’s close friend and a former action star himself.

But he said he would submit himself to a selection process. Lacson, however, said he would run whether he has the opposition’s backing or not.

The candidacy of Poe, known affectionately as "Da King" or FPJ, could prove the greatest stumbling block for Mrs. Arroyo’s chances of winning a second term in the May polls, surveys showed.

Poe commands the poorest classes of Philippine society, which account for four out of 10 Filipinos.

Poe is idolized by millions of poor Filipinos awed by his movie roles portraying him as a champion of the underdog who conquers all odds to triumph in the end.

Analysts have expressed concern that Poe’s popularity could make him president despite a lack of political expertise at a time when the Philippines is facing huge economic problems, including a faltering peso and a massive budget deficit.