Political battle lines being drawn for May 2004 elections

With seven months until a ballot is cast, major players in the boisterous and colorful world of Philippine elections have started drawing up the battle lines.

President Arroyo fired the first salvo when she announced two weeks ago she would seek a full six-year term, breaking a promise she had made in December to leave politics.

"I have deferred my retirement," she told her supporters at a former US air base in her home province of Pampanga. "I will offer myself to the electorate in 2004."

Soon after Mrs. Arroyo’s declaration, some of her closest allies started leaving her side to make their own plans for next May.

Raul Roco, a former education secretary, was the latest defector. Consistently near the top of opinion polls, he has not hidden his presidential ambitions.

Roco recently fell in with two of Mrs. Arroyo’s allies — retired general Renato de Villa and former Cebu governor Emilio Osmeña — to form what analysts termed the "Third Force."

While all three ran and lost in the 1998 presidential election, Roco put on an impressive showing by placing third — behind Joseph Estrada and Jose de Venecia Jr. — without much political machinery or outside funding.

"These are just temporary adjustments," said political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan. "The real power play begins when the opposition has chosen its candidate for the May 2004 elections."

He foresaw a three-way battle among Mrs. Arroyo, Roco and a single standard-bearer from opposition parties seeking an alliance and a formidable candidate that could wrest power from Mrs. Arroyo.

But they remain unsuccessful in convincing either beer and food tycoon Eduardo Cojuangco or hugely popular film star Fernando Poe Jr., known by his initials FPJ, to stand.

Rumors are swirling about deals to prevent strong potential rivals from challenging Mrs. Arroyo, who rose from vice president when a military-backed civilian uprising toppled President Joseph Estrada in January 2001.

A recent ruling by an anti-graft court lifting a freeze on shares held by Cojuangco in San Miguel Corp, Southeast Asia’s biggest food-and-drink conglomerate, was seen by many as a plum to dissuade him from running.

Mrs. Arroyo’s spokesman denied this, saying the government respected the independence of the country’s judiciary.

Cojuangco has kept his supporters waiting since making a promise two months ago to announce his decision about running.

Analysts also believe the recent move by police to transfer Estrada from a military hospital, where he was being held while on trial for graft, to an army base outside Manila could be part of another deal to get potential rivals out of Mrs. Arroyo’s way.

"It was pretty strange that Estrada did not raise a howl of protest over his transfer," said one former Arroyo ally. "There is suspicion that a deal was struck with Estrada to convince his buddy — FPJ — not to seek the presidency."

Police officials explained that Estrada had been transferred for security reasons, citing an unspecified threat to the deposed leader’s personal safety.

Estrada’s family and allies also did not contest the move.

The opposition’s third option, Sen. Panfilo Lacson, has been placed in a tougher position after the Supreme Court ruled to reopen an eight-year-old multiple murder case against him.

Lacson, a former national police chief and Estrada ally, has accused Mrs. Arroyo’s husband Mike of corruption.

As the top opposition choices fall by the wayside one after the other, the baton may pass to two senators and former broadcasters who enjoy immense support in opinion polls.

"Consultations are now under way to convince either Noli de Castro or Loren Legarda to run as the common candidate for the opposition," sources within the opposition told Reuters.

Until she jumped ship this month, Legarda was a member of Mrs. Arroyo’s Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrat coalition.

She has openly toyed with the idea of running for vice president if FPJ the movie icon decides to audition for the real-life role of president.

De Castro, the most popular bet for president, confirmed he had received but declined an invitation to join Mrs. Arroyo’s Lakas party.

Also yesterday, Senare President Protempore Juan Flavier and Senators Ramon Magsaysay Jr. and Robert Barbers said they will campaign for the presidential bid of Mrs. Arroyo next year.

The three administration lawmakers made the statement to dispel rumors that they would soon leave the ruling Lakas-CMD.

They said their loyalty to the party was "unwavering despite the pullout of Vice President Teofisto Guingona and Senate Majority Leader Loren Legarda earlier this month.

"My loyalty to the party will not waver. I will not fumble and I will continue to support the President," Flavier said.

For his part, Sen. Ramon Revilla also said he will not quit Lakas-CMD.

‘I will not leave Presisdent Arroyo and Lakas until I die," said Revilla, whose son, Videogram Regulatory Board chairman "Ramon "Bong" Revilla Jr., is assured of a slot in the Lakas senatorial ticket next year.

Past elections have shown parties do not make a president but that a party is easily created once a president is voted in.

Elections in this predominantly Roman Catholic country are essentially popularity contests as most of the 34 million voters tend to focus on personalities rather than platforms or policy.

"I am really excited because this is my first time to cast my vote," said Jenny Gonzales, who works at a fastfood chain. "I have not really made up my mind. But my father is a great fan of FPJ, so I might support him too." — Reuters, Jose Rodel Clapano