Issam al-Chalabi – who was once Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s oil minister – added that the country’s 76-day oil stock is "sufficient" to help the country through a shortage.
"There is not much impact (of a war in Iraq) to the countries in the South East. I do not see a direct impact on the Philippines. I do not foresee any major disturbances under the assumption that there are limited military activities," he told a media forum.
Crude oil prices may initially go up if war breaks out but he expects the upward trend to cease soon enough. "The prices may go down just like what happened during the Gulf War in 1991," he said.
He estimated crude oil prices to go down to even $22 per barrel from the current $30 to $37 per barrel. "About $25 per barrel is a good level that can be acceptable to oil producers," he said.
Chalabi also said local fuel prices – which have gone up lately – have no reason to be marked up. "It is not proper to reflect the increase on consumers. This is what the stockpile is for," he said. "Why should they reflect the prices on their supply today when it is not affected at all?"
A war in Iraq this time will have less impact on world crude prices, unlike in 1991 when the US-led troops ousted Iraqi troops from Kuwait, he said.
The impact was greater in 1991 because Iraq was occupying another oil producing country, Chalabi explained.
Chalabi was invited by the US Embassy in Manila to speak about his views on the possible impact of a war in Iraq on the international and local oil industries.
He served as minister of oil from 1987 to 1990, shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait. In 1991 he moved to Jordan, where he now works a private consultant on global energy, especially on oil and gas in the Middle East. He hasn’t visited Iraq since then.
Philippine officials earlier voiced concern that a war in the Middle East might cause crude oil prices to go up, which might eventually cause prices of basic commodities to shoot up as well.
President Arroyo earlier said she expected the Iraq crisis to be "short and temporary" and urged the transport sector to bear with higher costs for the time being.
Bus firms have petitioned government regulators to allow them to raise fares after pump prices soared to an all-time highs amid global expectation that the United States and its allies would attack Iraq shortly.
The Philippines imports most of its oil from the Middle East.
Manufacturers of basic goods have assured the government that they would hold prices even as the threat of war between the United States and Iraq continues to loom.
Trade Secretary Manuel Roxas II said government agencies have already drawn up emergency measures to ensure a steady supply of basic commodities and that prices remain stable in case a war in the Middle East erupts.
Prices of basic goods "may be affected if transportation fare increases, which also lead to wage increases," he said, however.