Day of reckoning draws near for US allies like RP

WASHINGTON – With US forces finalizing their war preparations against Iraq, a key question still unresolved is who will stand and be counted with America in its hour of need? And can any US ally, particularly developing countries like the Philippines, afford to bear the consequences of sitting on the sidelines?

President George W. Bush in his State of the Union address said the United States will brief members of the UN Security Council on Feb. 5 on evidence showing Iraq is still engaged in producing weapons of mass destruction.

The evidence may not be conclusive or satisfactory to everyone but the US move to consult the world body one last time on Iraq should provide the cover some undecided countries need to see things America’s way and come out in support of US military action against Iraqi president Saddam Hussein even without a UN go-order.

In his speech, Bush said he was asking all free nations to join the United States in disarming Iraq and "many are doing so."

In this context, Bush’s invitation to President Arroyo to visit Washington takes on added significance.

Mrs. Arroyo received an invitation to come two weeks after she announced on Dec. 30 that she was not running for re-election in 2004 and the immediate question that came to the mind of skeptics was why would Bush invite a "lame duck" president.

In the world of diplomacy, give and take or quid pro quo is a fact of life. So how will Mrs. Arroyo reciprocate Bush’s invitation, which no doubt raises her stature.

Some Philippine embassy officials suspect there may be a hidden agenda in the Bush invitation but for the most part, the rank and file do not attach sinister motives to what they view as a significant political gesture on the part of Bush to show that Washington is solidly behind the Arroyo administration. This will be her third visit to the United States in as many years in office, but her first state visit.

The conventional wisdom here is if the United States attacks Iraq it will have to be in late February or early March when all US troops are in place and before the onset of the hot season.

Diplomatic sources say Mrs. Arroyo is due here in early April, possibly April 3 or 9. Her defense secretary Angelo Reyes is expected in mid-February at the invitation of his counterpart Donald Rumsfeld.