The growing US military mission in the Philippines is difficult and dangerous, said analyst Gerard Finin of the East-West Center. The first US troops have arrived, and plans call for 600 to train Filipino anti-terrorist forces.
"The goal of the American presence in the Philippines is unclear and appears to be drifting from day to day," Finin said in a report released Friday. Earlier in the week, he raised concern that further terrorist attacks on America could be planned, funded and launched from remote Pacific island nations.
"It’s unclear whether the US mission is really for training, rescue of the American captives or subduing al-Qaeda sympathizers," Finin said in the report by the independent Honolulu-based East-West Center, which was established by Congress to strengthen understanding and relations between the United States and Asia-Pacific nations.
Finin said the administration appears to have no exit strategy for the Philippines and there is no guarantee that Filipino troops will be able to subdue Abu Sayyaf bandits. He also questioned whether Abu Sayyaf really is linked to al-Qaeda or is just a kidnapping-for-profit operation. The group is holding a Kansas missionary couple, Martin and Gracia Burnham, and earlier killed Guillermo Sobero of Corona, California, and several Filipino hostages
Finin noted that the US military presence is a divisive political issue in the Philippines, with demonstrations reminiscent of Filipino opposition to former US bases in the country
"The worst-case scenario may ultimately lead to a lack of success militarily and a weakening of bilateral relations," he said
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week defended US efforts in the region, saying, "If we have to go into 15 more countries we ought to do it to deal with the problem of terrorism, so we don’t allow this problem to damage and kill tens and thousands more people."
Richard Baker, a security analyst at the East-West Center, said working with Indonesia may be even more complicated than anti-terrorism efforts in the Philippines
Indonesia’s Muslims include several vocal Islamic activist groups which oppose cooperation with the United States, Baker said
"Anything we do in Indonesia has to take into account the very complex local scene and political tensions in the country," Baker said. "It’s not in the US interests to do anything that exacerbates internal tensions there."
Little is known about any active collaboration between Indonesian militants and al-Qaeda, he said, and Indonesian officials are more concerned about indigenous fundamentalists
The best approach for the United States, he said, is to share technology and encourage cooperation among governments in the region
"At least for the foreseeable future, direct involvement by the US military in Indonesia does not appear called for or advisable," Baker said.