SWS exit poll: It’s 8-5 for PPC

Eight candidates of the People Power Coalition (PPC) won in Monday’s senatorial elections ahead of four candidates of the Puwersa ng Masa (PnM) but behind one independent candidate, according to national exit polls conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

The nationwide results reflected voting in Metro Manila, where administration bets under the PPC also led 8-5, according to an SWS exit poll conducted in the capital region shortly after the polling centers closed.

But the opposition PnM branded exit polls as "premature and highly inconclusive" and called the SWS polls an attempt at "trending" to condition the mind of the public.

PnM spokesman Jesus Crispin Remulla said that "given the high percentage of respondents that refused to respond to the SWS survey or submitted invalid ‘ballots,’ the results remain dubious and unreliable."

The exit polls, commissioned by television network ABS-CBN, showed popular broadcast journalist and independent candidate Noli de Castro topping the so-called "Magic 13" with a 59 percent majority.

The exit polls showed that De Castro won in 10 of the country’s 15 regions, only losing his top post in Metro Manila, Cordillera, Muslim Mindanao and Western and Central Visayas.

Re-electionist Sen. Juan Flavier (PPC) followed De Castro with 40 percent, topping the polls only in Metro Manila and Cordillera regions but staying in the top five in five other regions.

Flavier was followed by a tie between Makati Rep. Joker Arroyo and re-electionist Sen. Sergio Osmeña III, both of the PPC, who both garnered 39 percent for third and fourth place.

For fifth to seventh place, re-electionist Senators Ramon Magsaysay Jr. and Franklin Drilon tied with lawyer Francis Pangilinan with 38 percent. All three belong to the PPC.

Former executive secretary and leading opposition candidate Edgardo Angara tied at eighth to ninth place with former Speaker Manuel Villar of PPC.

The last four slots remained a toss-up among Batangas Rep. and administration bet Ralph Recto, oppositionists Panfilo Lacson, Luisa Ejercito and re-electionist Sen. Gregorio Honasan, who all got 35 percent.

Behind the Magic 13 were re-electionist Senators Juan Ponce Enrile (32 percent) and Miriam Defensor-Santiago (31 percent), Quezon Rep. Wigberto Tañada (27 percent) and former Press Secretary Ricardo Puno (26 percent).

"Three other PnM candidates are within striking distance of the Magic 13 list of the so-called exit polls of the SWS which means that given the 10 percent margin of error, the final tally would still go the way of the present trend of an 8-5 or an even 9-4 win for the opposition bets," Remulla said.

In an interview during the ABS-CBN "Halalan 2001" coverage before dawn yesterday, SWS chairman Mahar Mangahas explained that the exit polls reflected what voters actually wrote on their ballots save for those who gave no answers (seven percent) or invalid ones (three percent).

Remulla said this amounted to a 10 percent error of margin that could still turn in favor of the opposition.

He said the exit polls involved a random sample of 5,446 voters across all social classes nationwide shortly after they cast their ballots on Monday, Mangahas said, adding the data statistically represented about 14 percent of the nationwide votes.

Mangahas explained that the exit poll was not meant to indicate trends but only reflected what people already wrote on their ballots. "It is useful for helping observers understand the votes. They help illuminate the voting scores according to class, according to religion, as well as the charismatic score," Mangahas said.

The exit polls, however, did not cover the 17,600 other seats up for grabs in the polls, including municipal and provincial posts and the entire House of Representatives.

But early returns showed former Speaker Jose de Venecia leading for the race for Pangasinan’s fourth district, paving the way for his return to the speakership of the House.

Early returns from four large Pangasinan towns appears to have voted decisively for De Venecia, who gave up his House seat in 1998 to run for the presidential elections.

The speakership is to be vacated by third-term Quezon City Rep. and mayoral candidate Feliciano Belmonte Jr. who also appears to be headed for a landslide win in the QC mayoral contest.

Early returns from QC also show a solid lead for most PPC candidates despite numerous voters who were earlier expected to generate sympathy votes for jailed former President Joseph Estrada, who organized the PnM.

PPC chief political strategist Paul Aquino admitted Estrada’s pre-election arrest generated sympathy votes for the PnM even in areas perceived to be administration bailiwicks.

Even Mangahas admitted that among the reasons for the strong showing of Luisa Ejercito in the polls would be sympathy votes for her and her family.

Before Estrada was arrested on April 26, Ejercito consistently placed around 16th to 19th place but shot up to as high as the top five in several regions in the country.

Ejercito placed second, behind De Castro, in the Cagayan Valley, Southern and Central Mindanao. — With reports from Perseus Echeminada, Nestor Etolle, Ding Cervantes and Sandy Araneta, Ella Oducayen