"If he is jailed, the victory of Puwersa ng Masa is ensured, possibly 13 to 0," said House Minority Leader Rep. Agapito Aquino of Makati, who is running for senator under the PM.
Aquino, secretary general of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) that is part of the PM coalition, addressed a general assembly of the local members of the opposition coalition here last Saturday.
While he said a 13-0 result for PM was likely in the event of an Estrada arrest, Aquino said that in a status quo scenario where the former president stays out of jail, five from the opposition entering the magic circle would be "a victory for the entire opposition."
He added that six opposition winners will constitute an "upset," and it would be a "miracle" if seven PM candidates win.
"But if this miracle happens, there will be a change in administration the next time around," the Makati congressman predicted.
He noted that while Estrada "is not a candidate in the elections, he is the best campaigner of the coalition party," adding that "people cry when he visits the marketplace during campaign sorties."
The brother-in-law of former President Corazon Aquino said this was the reason why "administration candidates are demoralized."
Estrada can be arrested the moment the Ombudsman files various charges against him before the Sandiganbayan. One of the charges, economic plunder, is non-bailable because it is punishable by death.
While militant groups are pressing for the arrest and trial of the disgraced leader, the administration is not rushing things for fear of a possible backlash from Estrada sympathizers.
In an open forum during the assembly, opposition Sen. Blas Ople said that Estrada’s arrest "cannot be done readily," although he stressed that "the LDP respects the law."
He said that all the charges against Estrada "are fabrications to discredit the LDP as orchestrated and also to stifle dissent."
"We should condemn this and appeal to those in power to stop oppressing President Estrada by denying him his day in court," Ople said.
He claimed that the administration’s purpose in allegedly maligning Estrada "in the press is to discredit the campaign of the LDP-Puwersa ng Masa."
Ople also warned of a people power III if four million youngsters are not allowed to register in time for the May 14 elections.
Aquino noted that the PM candidates started their campaign in Mindanao to acquaint them with "friendly territory."
"Lately, it seems that all are friendly territories, especially when we go to markets and factories," he said.
When the PM candidates went to Cagayan de Oro recently, Aquino said there was no plan to hold a political rally.
"But when a rally was decided for the afternoon, it was attended by some 30,000 people as against 2,000 people who went to the simultaneous rally of the People Power Coalition (PPC)," he said.
Aquino also said when the stage caved in at the rally, Estrada fell and injured his leg. When Aquino asked Estrada if he got hurt, the deposed president said that the injury even bled.
He said that Estrada continues to believe that he is still president. "We can accept the decision of the Supreme Court, but we do not agree," he added.
The Supreme Court earlier cast a unanimous vote affirming the legitimacy of the Arroyo presidency. The elections are seen largely as a referendum on the new government. The latest Senate race surveys had it 8-5 in favor of the PPC.