'Lack of political expertise' the biggest risk to a Marcos presidency — EIU
MANILA, Philippines — Should his family successfully return to Malacañang, the administration of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. could falter if he mishandles the execution of his policy agenda and descends into a corrupt rule, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) warned.
That was the case laid out by the research unit of the Economist Group on Monday, noting that despite being "ideologically" aligned to incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte, the competence of administrators that Marcos will be able to muster will matter.
"The biggest risk to a Marcos presidency (and the country's political stability) lies not in the policy agenda but in the competence of the incoming administration to execute it," the EIU said in an e-mailed commentary.
"However, Mr. Marcos's lack of executive experience and ties with political families associated with cronyism could prevent him from replicating Mr. Duterte's political recipe,” it added.
As a single-term senator from 2010 to 2016, Marcos filed 54 pieces of legislation, according to his website. Eighteen of those were national in terms of focus, which include penning a law postponing the Sangguniang Kabataan elections back in 2013 and co-writing others such as the Expanded Senior Citizens Act.
Meanwhile, Marcos courted some of the country's political elites throughout his campaign, banding together with old political families who have ruled over the country since his father's eventual ouster. His presidential campaign attracted unsavoury names in Philippine politics — some of them have been convicted of plunder charges.
Numerous analyses in past months noted Marcos will likely continue the policy agenda of Duterte if he wins. These include Duterte’s hardline policy measures such as a campaign against illegal drugs that killed thousands of the Filipino poor and being friendly with China amid the sea dispute.
But the EIU warned that if the son and namesake of the late dictator wins, "an ineffective and corrupt administration would be a worst-case scenario for investors."
"Marcos... can boast only a relatively unproductive stint as a senator, and remains closely associated with the record of his namesake father, who was overthrown as president amid allegations of endemic corruption in 1986," the research unit said.
"Failure to navigate the oft-fractious parliament and adequately deliver progress on major business-friendly reform and infrastructure upgrade amid an ongoing pandemic, which will require consummate political and communication skills, could jeopardise the country's hitherto impressive recent growth trajectory and trigger an sudden reversal of fortune and ensuing political volatility in 2023," the EIU added.
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