Satisfied

Those who wish to see President Rodrigo Duterte’s survey ratings fall, thereby weakening his grip on power, will have to work a lot harder.

The latest non-commissioned SWS quarterly survey shows the President’s political capital holding steady. Seventy percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the way the President was doing his job. Only 14 percent expressed dissatisfaction. The rest were undecided.

The SWS pronounced the President’s ratings “very good.”

In its report on the SWS results, Rappler combed the disaggregated data and focused on segments were the President’s ratings declined. This particular report highlighted the 11 percent decline in satisfaction among respondents in the E income bracket in the Balance of Luzon. They needed a microscope to find that number.

The Rappler report failed to note that Duterte’s satisfaction rating in the same income bracket rose in the Visayas and Mindanao. Furthermore, the more the numbers are disaggregated, the greater the margin of error will tend to be in the segments of the survey. Little wonder this online news portal annoys the President.

Similarly, the leftist Makabayan bloc in Congress focused on the same segment and arrived at the same conclusion that the administration’s “anti-poor” policies are causing a decline in satisfaction. This is a stupid conclusion to draw. Like Rappler, they failed to note that satisfaction levels were either holding steady or improving in other regions of the country.

Both Rappler and the demagogues of Makabayan took the greatest care to avoid looking at the numbers for respondents in the D income bracket. Demographically, those in the D bracket vastly outnumber those in the E bracket. Their economic condition and therefore their political opinion shifts easily. In the D bracket, Duterte’s numbers either held steady or improved.

Therefore, their assessment of the survey results are skewed. Therefore, their appraisal of the survey results is partisan. They insult the people’s intelligence.

They insult the people’s intelligence further by forgetting to mention that even in the segments were Duterte’s numbers were least impressive, the President still managed to achieve “good” satisfaction results.

Even if one, for sheer malice, selects the worst segments, Duterte’s numbers are still better than those the previous president garnered at the comparable point in his term. There is no denying, whatever one’s partisan leanings might be, President Duterte continues to be a popular leader.

There was every reason for the President’s satisfaction ratings to decline in this particular survey. Taken in late March, the survey covered a period that saw inflation spiking and cheap NFA rice disappearing from market stalls. The new excise taxes on fuel and sugary beverages have taken their most painful bite. A ban on labor deployment to Kuwait was ordered by Duterte no less.

But the President’s remarkable satisfaction ratings held steady, notwithstanding the passing adversity. Those who regularly take to the streets to demand his ouster and those who regularly predict his downfall will have to check their wishful thinking against the cold numbers.

The fresh numbers produced by the SWS quarterly survey must be set against the other numbers we know. Although our people prefer less bloodshed in the anti-drug campaign, an overwhelming majority agrees this is a nasty job that needs to be done.

At the start of the year, our people registered the highest rates of optimism about the future. That is a function of the robust economic expansion we are experiencing. The popularity of a presidency and the health of the national economy are rarely unbundled.

That should spell grief for those who wish an early termination for the Duterte presidency. Every forecast says our GDP growth will be even stronger this year than the last. The World Bank anticipates our economy continuing on its present trajectory into the foreseeable future.

If the economy is strong, the people are happy. If the people are happy, they will tend to be satisfied with the political leadership they have.

But enough of the economic determinism. Duterte is also a charismatic leader. He empathizes strongly with the poor and the vulnerable. He is appreciated for his decisiveness and relentlessness.

True, he tends to say more than he should – and often laced with intended sarcasm, such as when he said Boracay should be put under the land reform program. The provocativeness is intended.

True, he is prone to making decisions on the run, leaving his aides huffing and puffing in the aftermath. Recall the deployment ban he ordered on Kuwait and the total closure he ordered on Boracay. When he does that, it is always for love of country. Even those disadvantaged by these decisions understand the patriotism underlying.

True, he flip-flops. One day, he earnestly pursues peace with the communist insurgents. The next day, he orders the talks terminated. A few months after, he opens the door again. But, as he says over and over again, he cannot bear internecine killing.

When he banters with common folk, he invariably establishes solid connection. He understands them and they understand him, cusswords and all. This is a connection not easily broken by contrived propaganda about “creeping dictatorship” and all that.

Short of an earthshaking scandal or a compelling instance of bad faith on the part of this leader, it is hard to see how President Duterte’s numbers could suddenly collapse. The endless churning of political intrigue by the leftist groups or the likes of Antonio Trillines loses credibility by repetition.

For one who rose from city mayor to president, Duterte has demonstrated a superior political sensibility.