Panatag situation uneven, unstable

THE SITUATION at the disputed Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales may be temporarily productive for Filipino fishermen, but it appears to be unstable without a formal agreement with China or an enforceable ruling as to its status.

While the Philippines succeeded in regaining access to the traditional fishing ground, it has failed to assert an official presence in the area – in contrast to the looming authority of the Chinese Coast Guard overseeing activities around the shoal.

The pictures and videos of activities there show who is in control and who is merely being tolerated. The stories of fishermen returning home with their catch confirm the impression that they cast their nets in Panatag waters only by sufferance of the Chinese.

Is the fragile formula acceptable to President Rodrigo Duterte, whose word reverberates as policy? Whether it is yes or no, he is duty-bound to tell the nation what is going on and why. What exactly is the deal?

The President’s continued silence on the lopsided arrangement would soon sink in as acquiescence. Alas, he had admitted being helpless, saying in advance of his Oct. 18-21 state visit to Beijing that he would cast aside the arbitration ruling won in The Hague in July by the Philippines.

Duterte could have used as leverage the tribunal’s awarding practically all the 15 submissions of the Philippines in its complaint against China’s expansive claim over most of the South China Sea – but he chose neither to invoke the ruling nor rally allies to help apply pressure to enforce it.

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. have confirmed that the Chinese Coast Guard is now keeping watch in Panatag. In the absence of a clear agreement, however, they cannot say how long the unstable situation will last.

Duterte may want to work it out with China acting like a landlord that there be at least the balancing presence of one or two Philippine Coast Guard vessels alongside or some distance away from Chinese patrol craft.

• Chinese buying up property in Europe

MENTION of the “landlord” reminds me of that time during Marcosian martial rule when we went on self-exile in California. Old timers in the San Francisco Bay Area would advise us newcomers to be careful not to cross a Chinese.

Their explanation: “Who knows, he might be your next landlord.” Indeed, at that time (possibly even today) you ring up an apartment to rent and most likely you end up talking to a Chinese, the owner.

In the South China Morning Post a few days ago, it was reported that wealthy Chinese have been buying up commercial and residential property in Germany, a country preferred for its stability and legal standards.

The paper quoted property brokers reporting a steady rise in inquiries from Chinese in Germany and China. Lin Dattner, owner of Anjia Immobilien & Consulting, said mainlanders were buying commercial property as a safe haven. His company specializes in serving Chinese clients.

An industry report said investment in residential property in Germany rose 84 percent to €11.25 billion last year compared to the previous year. Net yields in the first quarter were 3.7 percent for prime newly built apartments, and 4.6 percent for existing units.

Jan Linsin, head of research at CBRE in Germany, sees more interest in commercial property from institutional investors in China in the next three years.

He noted: “Usually in Europe the first step is London, then Paris, then Germany. We’ve seen an interest in London in the last three years, so we are now expecting an increasing interest from Asia and especially China.”

Apartments and homes are also attracting high-net-worth executives who need them for their own use or to rent out, and parents who want accommodation for their children when they attend university.

Anne Riney, sales director at the Engel & Volkers in Berlin’s Mitte, said: “There has been a significant growth in demand from Chinese clients. It wasn’t noticeable before, but now it’s very noticeable.”

• China passes US as largest economy

IF YOU haven’t heard it yet, China has just overtaken the United States as the world’s largest economy.

The International Monetary Fund, according to Hugo Duncan of the Daily Mail, has said that China’s economy is now worth £11 trillion as the US with £10.8 trillion fell into second place for the first time since it overtook Great Britain in 1872.

The British conservative tabloid reported on Oct. 8: “China – whose wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialization – is expected to extend its lead, with the IMF estimating its economy will be worth £16.7 trillion in 2019.

“That would be 20 percent bigger than the US economy, which is forecast to be worth £13.8 trillion by then.

“The numbers are based on ‘purchasing power parity’ (PPP) which makes adjustments for the fact that goods are cheaper in countries such as China relative to the US.

“Without these adjustments for living costs, the Chinese economy is still smaller than that of the US, at £6.4 trillion.

“But experts have described the toppling of America after nearly 150 years by China – even on the PPP measure – as a ‘symbolic’ moment for the global economy.

“China enjoyed three decades of double-digit growth before the global downturn, as industrialization and sweeping economic reforms created a new powerhouse in the East.”

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