The 2nd Cold War

Amidst all the PDAF scandals, it is important to remember that the Philippines is literally in the eye of a geopolitical storm that could be the beginning of another Cold War. It began as territorial disputes between China on one side and Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines on the other.

However, aggressive moves by China to assert territorial sovereignty have escalated the tensions. The latest is the placement of a $1 billion oil rig off the Vietnamese coast line. Vietnam did not back down. Instead Vietnamese boats stood their ground against superior Chinese naval forces. The Philippines also decided to resupply its Marine station in the Ayungin shoals by outmanuevering a Chinese cruiser.

In a recent Asian Security Forum in Singapore, United States Secretary Chuck Hagel stated that China “has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.” In the same forum, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged countries to respect the rule of law.

In the same forum, the deputy chief of staff of the Chinese Armed Forces reacted aggressively, saying he was incensed by both statements. Chinese officials have issued statements saying China is prepared to be the enemy if that is what the United States wants.

But in a matter of days, the American and Japanese statements drew public support from top officials from Australia, United Kingdom and Germany.

In Eastern Europe, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support of Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine has caused NATO to impose economic and business sanctions against Russia. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 composed of the United States, Canada and Western European countries. It was part of a strategy to contain and prevent the territorial expansion of Russia and its allies.

It was the American columnist Walter Lippman who, in 1947, begun to popularize the term “cold war,” which was meant to describe a situation where two nations weighed each other carefully and warily. This is like two boxers circling each other in the ring before the real fight begins. Fortunately, the cold war never erupted into another world war.

In 1989, the Soviet Union abandoned its empire in Eastern Europe. The largest state was Russia. Among the other states were Georgia, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine. The three Baltic states are concerned about a possible Russian invasion. The fear is that Putin wants to revive the old Soviet Union and become a superpower once more.

Recently, Russia and China have signed a multibillion dollar agreement for a natural gas pipeline from Russia to China. This will ensure China of guaranteed energy supply. It will also revive the old Russia-China alliance during the cold war.

There are now very strong indications that in Europe and Asia, relationships between the old Western alliance led by the United States and its previous challengers, Russia and China, are transcending territorial disputes and escalating into another potential Cold War.

The question is whether the second cold war will turn into a “hot war.” During the first Cold War, the only direct conflict between the superpowers was the war between China and the United States in the Korean Peninsula. But there were many other wars fought by allies of the two sides. There were wars in Vietnam, Angola, Congo, Afghanistan and Nicaragua.

The superpowers — United States, UK, Russia and China — also supported rebel or guerrilla movements to undermine governments who were allies of their opponents. The Communist guerrillas in the Philippines received material support from China during that period. This strategy will again surface in the new Cold War. Already in Syria, Russia and China are supporting Assad while the USA and NATO are opposing him.

After every major war, there are calls for peace and justice. Unfortunately, after a short period of “non-war,” another major war seems to take place again. After the First World War (1914-1918) and an interlude of 21 years, the Second World War engulfed the world (1939-1945). After a short three-year period, the First Cold War started. It ended in 1989, but 25 years later are we now seeing the beginning of the Second Cold War?

The question has often been asked, is war the biological destiny of mankind? After all, history tells us that even Popes have called on their followers to go to war, such as in the times of the Crusades. As the ancient Greek philosopher Plato once said, “Only the dead have seen the end of war.”

Surprisingly successful Phl President

The internationally respected London-based magazine, Economist, devoted a full page column to President Benigno Aquino III in its recent issue. The magazine is must reading for almost all world leaders in business, government and the academe.

The title of the article is “The Impossible Dream: The surprisingly successful president of the Philippines.” It talks of P-Noy’s character and his capacity to remain level headed and calm and never be impulsive even when provoked.

The column also talked of the transformation of Philippine politics since the people power revolution and the strengthening of democratic institutions. It says: “The Philippines is not Thailand.”

It also cites the three biggest achievements of the Aquino administration. The first is the acceleration in the country’s economic growth to 7.2% in 2013 and not much less in 2014. Southeast Asia’s tortoise has become its hare. In the coming the economy might even grow faster than China. The government finances and banking system are sound.

The second achievement is maintaining a clean image and to punish corruption elsewhere. The third is bringing a long and bloody Islamist insurgency in Mindanao closer to its end.

However, the article ends on both a sober and hopeful note: “The president has done better than many expected but must know that he cannot safeguard any of his reforms from a future government that chooses to be profligate or corrupt.”

The article does say that the future is really in the hands of the Filipino people. It says: “He hopes to count as his legacy a change from the Filipino mindset from ‘don’t dream, it will never happen’ to one in which they believe their dreams will come true. But maybe the Filipinos will aim higher and demand more from their leaders.”

Write Away!

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