Climate crisis puts oil in the crosshairs, but dependence persists
PARIS, France — The climate crisis has put the end of oil onto the agenda, but achieving that is a colossal task given the world economy's deep dependence on petroleum.
"In 2021, several developments showed clearly that (the petroleum) industry doesn't have a future," said Romain Ioualalen at the activist group Oil Change International.
The International Energy Agency warned in May that an immediate halt to new investment in fossil projects is needed if the world is to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and to stand any chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.
The call was a revolution for an agency created in the wake of the first 1970 oil shock to protect the energy security of rich, oil-consuming nations.
Another major moment in 2021 was the emergence at the COP 26 climate summit in Glasgow of a coalition of nations that pledged to phase out oil and gas production, although no major oil and gas producing nation joined that group.
"It is no longer taboo to talk about the end of the extraction of hydrocarbons during international climate summits," said Oil Change International's Ioualalen.
And fossil fuels — which still represent 80 percent of energy consumed — were explicitly blamed for driving climate change, which was not the case when the Paris climate pact was reached in 2015.
More recently, environmental defenders scored a symbolic victory when oil giant Shell decided to exit the development of the controversial Cambo oil field off Scotland saying the investment case was "not strong enough".
'Dependent'
"We've known for several years that the end of crude oil ... is near," said Moez Ajmi, an energy specialist at professional services firm EY.
"But is the world ready to live without oil? It is still very dependent in my view."
The IEA also believes that oil demand is still set to rise. It expects it to reach its pre-pandemic level of just under 100 million barrels per day next year.
With crude prices having rebounded in the past months, oil producers are rolling in cash and can afford to pursue new projects.
"Any talk of the oil and gas industries being consigned to the past and halting new investments in oil and gas is misguided," OPEC leader Mohammed Barkindo said recently.
The head of French oil firm TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, said he's "convinced the transition will take place because there is a real awareness, but it will take time."
He believes the issue is being approached from the wrong end. Instead of focussing on reducing oil, attention should be shifted towards consumption.
Demand for fossil fuels "will decline because consumers have access to new products like electric vehicles," said Pouyanne.
In the first half of the year, electric vehicles accounted for 7 percent of global auto sales, according to BloombergNEF. While that is still a small percentage, it is growing fast.
'Transformational year'
Oil Change International's Ioualalen said that arguments put forward by oil companies and producing nations are cynical and focus on the short term.
"They're trying to justify an unsustainable trajectory at any cost," he said.
"We're still far from a decarbonised economy, of course, but it is the energy system investments that are made today that will lead us there," said Ioualalen.
Whatever the horizon for the end of petroleum, industry players are still only willy-nilly preparing for it as pressure upon them mounts.
US oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron were long holdouts but finally announced this year investments into the energy transition.
"2022 has the potential to be a truly transformational year," said Tom Ellacott, senior vice president for corporate analysis at energy research and consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie.
"It's clear that sitting on the decarbonisation sidelines isn't an option" given the increasing pressure on the oil industry.
Experts believe that 2022 will see more investment in wind and solar power as well as technology to capture carbon emissions from fossil fuel power plants and factories.
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, Earth could warm by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) as early as 2030, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change says in a landmark report.
"Global warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate," the report concluded with "high confidence."
Earth's surface has warmed one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit)—enough to lift oceans and unleash a crescendo of deadly storms, floods and droughts—and is on track toward an unliveable 3C or 4C rise.
Japan issued heatstroke alerts Sunday to tens of millions of people as near-record high temperatures scorched swathes of the country, while torrential rain pummelled other regions.
National broadcaster NHK warned viewers that the heat was at life-threatening levels, as temperatures soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places, including the capital Tokyo.
"Please stay hydrated and use air conditioners appropriately, and refrain from outings that seem difficult," a news presenter said. — AFP
Developing countries voice "disappointment" as climate talks in Germany ended Thursday with frustrations flaring over a lack of momentum on helping vulnerable nations cope with the impacts of warming.
With world attention drawn towards other challenges, notably Russia's invasion of Ukraine and spiralling food, energy and economic crises, the technical discussions meant to lay the groundwork for key United Nations negotiations later this year were mired in disagreements.
Representatives of nearly 200 countries arrived in the city of Bonn buoyed by the ambition displayed six months ago during the UN COP26 negotiations in Glasgow, where countries rallied around the urgent threat of climate change.
"After that sense of emergency had been established, probably the expectations were very high," says Preety Bhandari, senior climate adviser at the World Resources Institute. — AFP
Negotiators from almost 200 countries will meet in Bonn Monday for climate talks tasked with reigniting momentum on tackling global warming, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine overshadows the threat from rising emissions.
The conference will set the stage for a fresh round of major United Nations talks later this year in Egypt.
It will also be a chance to test the resolve of nations facing a catalogue of crises, including escalating climate impacts, geopolitical tensions, bloodshed in Ukraine and the threat of a devastating global food crisis.
"Climate change is not an agenda we can afford to push back on our global schedule," said outgoing UN climate change chief Patricia Espinosa ahead of the meeting. — AFP
Nations in the G20 group of major economies have yet to strengthen greenhouse gas reduction goals despite agreeing to revisit their plans ahead of critical UN climate talks in November, according to an analysis by leading research NGOs seen exclusively by AFP.
At the Glasgow COP26 climate summit last year countries pledged to review inadequate plans for cutting carbon pollution this decade ahead of the COP27 conference.
Two G20 nations — India and Turkey — have failed to update their original carbon cutting plans submitted in 2015, as required under the Paris Agreement.
Neither has non-G20 member Egypt, which will host the COP27 climate summit in November. — AFP
Four key climate change indicators all set new record highs in 2021, the United Nations said Wednesday, warning that the global energy system was driving humanity towards catastrophe.
Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification all set new records last year, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its "State of the Global Climate in 2021" report.
"The global energy system is broken and bringing us ever closer to climate catastrophe," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said of the findings. — AFP
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