Tour Analysis: An Excellent Tour?

There are some people saying that this Tour is one of the best Tour’s in recent years. Their reason for calling it “the best” has nothing to do with great racing but with their observation that the leaders in the overall classification are “possibly” dope-free.

To say that the 2008 Tour is generally excellent because the dope-free atmosphere levels the playing field is contestable. Excellent because it’s almost (there were 3 positives and one ‘fessed up) dope-free, yes, but racing-wise, the favorites didn’t have the cohojones to attack and were simply content to keep their positions in the overall classification. Maybe they couldn’t do a Pantani-esque attack because they’re not juiced but this doesn’t make the race exciting. Of course, I’m not advocating doping to make the racing exciting, but lets just call a spade a spade. If the 2008 TdF was a basketball game, the players are simply exchanging baskets without defense for 3 quarters and 10 minutes and then decide the game in the final 2 minutes.

In yesterday’s final mountain stage to the famous climb of Alpe d’Huez, team CSC-SAXO simply overwhelmed their rivals by their superior numbers and not because they had the talented riders. Carlos Sastre dropped everybody at the foot of the climb to win the stage but didn’t gain enough cushion over Cadel Evans and Dennis Menchov going into Saturday’s 53km ITT of which Evans and Menchov are the favorites.

Sastre would have gained more time had his teammates, Frank and Andy Schleck, not chase down the attacks of Samuel Sanchez, Christian Vandevelde or Vladimir Efimkin who were 3 minutes down on the overall. Every time the Schlecks would chase either of the three, the pace would increase and they would drag with them a visibly tired Evans and a struggling Menchov. If the brothers had simply allowed Evans and Menchov and to do the chasing, both would run out of bullets and Sastre would have around 3 minutes advantage in the overall today instead of the shaky 1.34min over Evans.

Can Sastre win the Grand Boucle?

Can Sastre hold off his pursuers this Saturday? If we base it on stage 4’s  29.5km ITT, Evans, Menchov and Vandevelde beat Sastre by 1.24, 1.09 and 1.06 minutes respectively. Therefore, in a 53km TT, Evans, on paper, would beat Sastre. Menchov, who is 2.39min down in the overall classification, maybe could beat Sastre but Vandevelde, at 4.41min, is too far down.

Of course, its all guesswork. The real job is done on the road. Sastre’s advantage over his pursuers is psychological because they say that wearing the yellow jersey gives the wearer the strength of two men. In fact, Frank Schleck noted during the rest day, “The yellow jersey gives you wings.”

It’s also worth noting that in last years Tour, Evans beat Sastre by 2.33min in the final 55.5km ITT which was won by Levi Leipheimmer. But Sastre has worked hard on his TT skill. In 2004, he went to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to have his position wind tunnel tested.Sastre, who once rode as a domestique for Joseba Beloki, Abraham Olano and Laurent Jalabert for team ONCE from 1998-2001, will be given the chance that his former bosses never gave. I hope he can make the most of this opportunity.

In spite of a boring Tour this year, I will still be following the event as long as I can. Not every NBA Final, Super Bowl or World Series can be exciting. Wait till next year.