Tour Analysis: Champion will be the one who can recover best

The final stage to the mythical climb of Alpe d’Huez will be shown tonight on BALLS TV “live”. Show should start around 9PM. Don’t miss it!

With 5 days to go, the overall classification in the Tour de France looks hazy like the man-made forest in Bilar during a rain. Yellow jersey Frank Schleck of CSC-SAXO, Cadel Evans of SILENCE-LOTTO, Bernhard Kohl of GEROLSTEINER, Christian Vandevelde of GARMIN-CHIPOTLE, Dennis Menchov of RABOBANK and Carlos Satre, teammate of Schleck, are just within 49sec of each other.

I think that if tomorrow was the penultimate day, a 53km ITT, I’d pick Cadel Evans to win but looking at his performance last Sunday, it’s obvious that Evans, whose team is invisible, could not handle both CSC-SAXO and Menchov. Unfortunately for Evans, there is still the Alps before the ITT.

Menchov has momentum on his side. If he had not gone down after he attacked, I guess he’d be the one wearing yellow now. The reason is that in spite of the crash, he was able to go back to the main group and did a successful attack a few minutes later and more importantly gained time. The last person to do the feat was Lance Armstrong in 2003.

While Evans is bidding his time for this Saturday’s TT, it should be kept in mind that Menchov is no slouch in the discipline he is on par with Evans in TT’s. But first, he has to reduce the 38sec deficit over Evans in the next 2-days to gain a mental edge.

As for the tag team of Schleck and Sastre, and the German Kohl, I don’t think that they can overhaul Menchov, Evans and the surprising American, Vandevelde. The CSC-SAXO riders and Kohl can’t time trial compared to the other trio. For Schleck, Sastre and Kohl, getting a 3-minute coming out of the Alps would be their target. But you have to remember that the hard work of CSC-SAXO last Sunday wasn’t commensurate to the 7sec gained by Schleck.

Vandevelde is the dark horse in this group. A former domestique for Lance Armstrong, he should know how to deal with his situation from past experience alone. He gets strong in the end but he doesn’t have the top-end speed that he needs to separate himself from the other favorites in the mountains. Menchov and Evans are not overly concerned about the American, and that can play right into Vandevelde’s hands. A top 3 finish is very reachable for Vandevelde, that is if he can be within a minute with the likes of Sastre, Kohl and Schleck going into the final ITT.

In a three-week race, fatigue and recovery would play an important role. Menchov has the experience in these situations as a 2-time winner of the Vuelata a Espana. I think that the rider who can recovers best will win the Tour. At this point, Menchov looks friskier than the rest.