Eight Pretenders

If there ever is a time that Lance Armstrong is vulnerable, this tour is it. It doesn't surprise me if his mind starts to ask him if it is still worth chasing a 7th tour when six consecutive wins are already a record in itself.

He has 3 kids and he says he doesn't want to miss their growing years. He also plans of marrying and having more kids with current flame and rock superstar Sheryl Crow.

On the other hand, I think he has nothing to lose, except maybe for his sponsor, DISCOVERY CHANNEL. And no man is more dangerous when he's got nothing to lose.

Here are the top pretenders to his crown and what their chances are.

1. Jan Ullrich, GER (T-MOBILE), 4th in 2005. This big German is what scares Lance to getting on his bike. But I already said it on my last article that his window of opportunity is a sliver. And to top it all, two strong contenders are his teammates and that doesn't bode well for him and his team.

2. Ivan Basso, ITA (CSC), 3rd in 2005. At 27 yo, this classy Italian was the only rider who could hang on with Lance in the mountains last year. His Achilles heel was his time trialling although he has improve so much this year and he showed it by winning an ITT in last May's Giro d'Italia. If he can be as consistent as last year, and Lance has a "un jour sans" (one bad day), he could win it all.

3. Alexander Vinokourov, KAZ and Andreas Kloden GER (T-MOBILE), 3rd 2003 and 2nd 2004 respectively. However the team management says these two are the flies in Ullrich's soup. It is impossible to have two contenders in a team but with 3 leaders, two are bound to be unhappy. Vinokourov is an attacking rider so he's exciting to watch but is inconsistent. Kloden was obviously stronger than Ullrich in 2004 and had he not work for Jan in the earlier part, he could have been "closer" to Lance in the end. But closer is not a win.

4. Roberto Heras SPA 2nd 2002 (LIBERTY SEGUROS) Heras has won the Vuelta a Espagna thrice but the last TdF winner to win the Vuelta was Ullrich in '99 so winning the Vuelta isn't a good guage at all.

5. Levi Leipheimmer, 9th 2004, US (GEROLSTEINER). Another ex-domestique of Lance and gained prominence after getting 3rd unexpectedly in the 2002 Vuelta. After losing weight this year, a top 5 finish is within sight.

6. Santiago Botero COL and Floyd Landis US (PHONAK). Botero is an enigmatic rider. He can blow everybody away in the ITT and lose minutes the following day in the mountains. Landis is an untested leader after serving Lance for the last 2 years. It'll be interesting how he'll fare as a leader. OUTSIDERS:

Paco Mancebo, Alejandro Valverde SPA and Vladimir Karpets RUS (LIBERTY SEGUROS).

Of the three, Valverde and Karpets has the greatest potential but I think they're here to learn this year, not to win.

Iban Mayo SPA (EUSKALTEL) was blazing in all races he rode before the tour in '04. But the Basque faltered in the high mountains.

He had a low key approach to the Tour this year so it's difficult again to say where his fitness level is today. Chris Horner US (SAUNIER DUVAL) is probably the rider to watch. At 33 yo, he's tour neophyte but outside of Lance, he is the most exciting rider with a mouth to match. In last months Tour de Suisse, he won a difficult mountain stage, dropping Ullrich.