Why Ullrich won't win

I'm not a betting man but I'd put all my chips on the table that says Jan Ullrich won't win the 102nd edition of the Tour de France that will start this Saturday, July, 2. Here are my reasons why:

1. Management. Although it's the strongest on paper, T-MOBILE it is the 2004 LA Lakers. Not only has it too many chiefs, it also has an old school management where everybody is expected to ride well as paid pros without consideration to "other" factors like massaging the egos of riders other than Jan.

T-MOBILE has a rep for turning great riders into lemons. Bobby Julich, Santiago Botero and Paolo Salvodelli, when still riding with them, are the classic examples. When Jan left the team in 2003 to ride for BIANCHI, he had his best showing since 1998 when he came in behind Marco Pantani. That year, he came a few seconds close to beating Lance. But when he returned to T-MOBILE fold last year, he came in 4th, his poorest showing in the Tour.

2. Age. Jan Ullrich won the TdF at age 24 in 1997 and has taken 2nd place five times and 4th once. At 31, he is not getting any better. At the Tour of Switzerland 2 weeks ago, he was dropped in the mountains to the riders that are not considered TdF material. Unlike cheese and wine, old climbers don't get better with age. Lance is 2 years older but he has ridden fewer races to minimize wear and tear. He has also obviously taken care of his body better than Jan.

3. Teammates. Erik Zabel, the 6-time best sprinter of the Tour, was explicitly left off the team roster to pack the team with helpers in the mountains. But two of Jan's teammates, Alexander Vinokourov (3rd in 2003) and Andreas Kloden (2nd last year) are also vying for the yellow jersey. This "multi-leader" set-up can boomerang on the team although both have taken the company line that they are primarily riding for Jan and will only go for the win if Jan falters. In Lance's team, DISCOVERY CHANNEL, he is the absolute leader while the rest, no matter how great they are, understand their domestique roles.

4. Focus. No one in cycling has the laser like focus of Lance and his team. He checks every hairpin and tarmac on the route many times over. Contrast that to Vinokourov and Kloden, who in an interview last week said that it isn't necessary to do reconnaissance since they are very familiar with these roads. Also, while Jan's weight problem is an annual media spectacle, Lance has no problem keeping his weight in check.

5. Motivation. The German's motivation is difficult to read, although he says that he is more motivated this year since this would be the last time that he'd go head to head with Lance. On the other hand, Lance motivation never seems to drop a gradient. The guy is simply scared of losing and just the thought of Jan "keeps him awake at night".

I know a lot of tour observers would disagree with me with this but I believe that even this year, Lance is clearly heads and shoulders above everybody else. Miguel Indurain was also considered a sure bet for a 6th until his age (32) betrayed him. But until Jan and or any pretenders can stand on the top of the podium this 26th of July, Lance is my guy for a seventh heaven.

Next time, I'll make a list of the pretenders of the crown.

I'd like to thank Dr. Felicito Pascual, a teacher, colleague and friend for the kind words he said to me. Thanks, Doc!. .. Dan Wistihoff, the Tar Heel roadie who has been racing with us at the Mandaue Rekla, will be watching the first four stages of the Tour with his wife Marmi, front row. I hope he can send us first hand information while he's there.