Supply down, demand up: Daily brownouts expected in '09

CEBU - Daily power outages are expected next year as the supply will not be able to meet the demand.

The National Power Corporation (Napocor) and National Transmission Corporation (Transco) informed the public of the expected almost daily power outages especially during weekdays.

This pronouncement has worried the Cebu City government as this could affect the South Road Properties (SRP).

Transco AVP for the Visayas System Operations Engr. Crispin Lamayan said that for the last 10 months, Negros and Panay Island are already experiencing almost daily power outages due to a small power reserve of the region.

He said Cebu is just lucky to have just been minimally affected, because in the Cebu-Negros-Panay grid, Cebu is the last priority for load shedding.

Lamayan added that power shortage is not felt yet for the last two weeks, because of the cold weather, which actually lessened power consumption by 50 megawatts.

“Next year, there will be no more reserve as every year we are shutting down a plant. Big plants will be opened only on 2010 and until then, we will have plenty of brownouts,” Lamayan said.

According to Napocor, the whole system demand in the Visayas is 1152 megawatts. In Cebu alone, demand as of yesterday was 510 megawatts.

The total capacity varies all the time but as of yesterday, Napocor said, the Visayas has 1080 megawatts supply, which means there is a deficit of 72 megawatts.

Napocor said the basis for the expected shortage is the predicted demand of Transco next year which tells that there will be an increase of 5.6 percent over this year’s demand.

Napocor further said that considering they have to conduct major maintenance in 2009, there will be no additional capacity and expects even lesser.

Napocor corporate staff Moses Red, in a recent news forum, confirmed that they are no longer allowed to put a new plant.

Power plants are aging and they are left with only three options which are either to defer the maintenance of the plants, cancel the maintenance or allow the plants to run until they conk out.

Red said that in fact, two barges generating 24 megawatts each in Panay are about to be shut. He said this is already a great loss considering that each megawatt in the Visayas counts.

The dwindling capacity to supply and the imbalanced growth of demand exaggerates the shortage. Red said Napocor however can still satisfactorily meet the contracted demand, but the problem is that consumers demand beyond what is contracted.

“Demand side management is all we can do to counter this imminent problem. Lessening the demand will minimize brownouts,” Red said.

Companies are encouraged to utilize their generator sets during peak hours to minimize the demands in the same way as household consumers are encouraged to use electricity heavily only after the peak period which is from six to ten o’clock in the evening.

Consumers are also advised to observe energy conservation practices to help prevent power outages or worse, region-wide blackouts for long periods.

Lamayan said that the Visayan Electric Company, which is Napocor and Transco’s most active client, is making arrangements with San Miguel Corporation, SM Mall, Ayala and Cemex to independently run their own generator sets so instead of dropping housing loads, VECO will just drop industrial loads.

Napocor Corporate Associate Dennis Dagala said that until the operation of two power plants in Cebu — Toledo Power and Kepco Salcon plants each expected to produce 250-megawatts of power, supply remains critical so “people better manage their demand.”

Meanwhile, Lamayan said that despite the global economic crisis that caused the recession, still, everybody has business plans and everybody wants to put their own business. As business establishments grow in number and more people build their own houses, increase in demand for power seems irrepressible.

The Cebu Business Club through its president Gordon Joseph said the power shortage is indeed a threat to the business sector. But they are hoping that somehow there will be an offset in the demand for power with reduced economic activities due to recession.

Worried City

Acting Cebu City Mayor Michael Rama yesterday said that the shortage has to be addressed.

Rama expressed his concern on this looming problem as locators investing in the SRP are expected to start building in six months.

So far the City Government has not made a single contract with utilities, but is leaning towards the tapping of the Visayan Electric Company (VECO) for the supply of electricity.

For now VECO is supplying electricity for the lights at the Cebu South Coastal Road wherein seven kilometers are within Cebu City.

Rama said he will call on the representatives of the power sector to brief the city officials with the real situation the soonest so that plans will be undertaken.

Cebu City Planning and Development Coordinator Nigel Paul Villarete said the upcoming power shortage will not affect the multi billion project for as long as everything will be planned well. – with Ferliza C. Contratista/NLQ (THE FREEMAN)