Destabilization and Investments

There are no official statistics on the amount of investments lost or postponed in the one week "State of Emergency" in the country last week. But historical investment flows and anecdotal evidence may give us good approximations.

In the weeks before the destabilization, foreign short term investments (hot money), was coming in at the rate of $100 million a week; foreign direct investment (FDI) at $10 million a week; and domestic investment at $10 million a week. Add to these a $5 million endangered BPO (call center,etc.) contract and another $5 million in additional Cebu furnitures sales which may have been consummated in the Cebu Furniture Show during the week, and we missed $130 million in investment flows in that one week of military-political adventurism.

Hopefully, the bulk of these investment flows were not lost but merely postponed. Still, even excluding the "hot money," the $30 million (P1.5billion) would have created at least 1500 jobs and supported 1500 families. This gives us an idea of how costly the eight "coup d' etats" that Honasan initiated against then President Cory Aquino, to the Philippine economy.

After the military-political events last week, it now seems that PGMA is getting stronger and the probability of her staying in power is now at 85%.She is getting stronger as the economy is getting stronger.The fiscal performance of the government is still improving, the peso in appreciating against almost all currencies, the stock market is booming, and the foreign investments are still coming. If a survey is done in the business community now, PGMA will get very good ratings, and these ratings will extend to the professional class and a very large portion of the middle class. A random sampling of this sector and class reactions to the recent events, including readers and listeners' feedback, indicates a silent majority now becoming a vocal majority. A survey in this month of March stratified by class and sector will easily validate this perception.

I am of the opinion that the opponents of PGMA are misreading the public sentiments on the gravity of PGMA's wrongdoings, or they are just too engrossed in their own ambitions. The informed middle class cannot accept removal as penalty for what she has done, as it is not as bad as what Marcos or Erap had done. Besides, she has atoned for her wrongdoings and is doing better for the country than Marcos or Erap ever did. In the given political milieu of the country, for many people it no longer is just black or white, but shades of gray, so they would rather that she stays as President. More so because the alternatives that keep on appearing in front of the cameras are not really white Knights but are even of a darker shade. This is the reality, and CORY AQUINO by associating with these characters is now a FADED GLORY, disappointing a growing number of people everyday.