NEDA lowers 2014 growth forecast for Central Visayas

CEBU, Philippines – The National Economic and Development Authority has lowered its 2014 regional growth forecast for Central Visayas, noting the effects of major calamities may have affected the region’s economic recovery.

The economic planing agency has predicted regional growth of around 8 to 9 percent last year for Central Visayas although it has set a high target of 11.2 percent.

NEDA-7 Director Efren Carreon said: “We are still hopeful that we would be able to hit the low-end target between 8 to 9 percent. We are a little bit concern that the high-end target may not be achieved in 2014 considering the effects of Yolanda and the [Bohol] earthquake which were felt in 2014.”

In an interview with The FREEMAN, the official cited factors such as slowdown in government spending and plunging agricultural production that have impacted the region’s growth forecast.

“Expanding the supply and reach of basic facilities and services including health, education and infrastructure to make the economy more inclusive,” the NEDA said of the regional development goals and priorities in 2014-2016.

It added: “Fast track rehabilitation and recovery efforts caused by major disasters that hit the region.”

NEDA has also forecast an average gross regional domestic product growth rate of around 8 to 9 percent in 2015 and average of 9.8 percent in 2016. Its high predictions for the regional economy are set at 11.9 and 12.6 percent for 2015 and 2016, respectively.

The country’s statistics agency normally releases annual GRDP figures in June, much later than the release of the national economic output data.

Economic sectors

The three economic sectors -- agriculture, industry and services -- remain the region’s growth engine, with agriculture still having the lowest average growth performance at over 3 percent.

Average growth rate of industry and services is pegged at 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

Industry could likely grow by 13 to 16 percent in 2014; services by 7 to 9 percent; and agriculture by 2 to 2.5 percent.

In the last four years, CV’s economy averaged at 9 percent which Carreon described as “a very respectable growth rate for a region.” Its economic size was valued at P733 billion, as of 2013.

It grew by 7.4 percent in 2013 despite the effects of the Bohol earthquake and typhoon Yolanda; however, this was lower than 9.4 percent growth in 2012.

The trend in 2013 maintained its 6.3 percent share in the Philippine economy despite the deceleration -- it ranked fourth in terms of regional share to GDP.

CV accelerated to its highest at 12.5 percent in 2010.