The economics of Sinulog

After the news broke out that Cebu City mayor Tommy Osmeña plans to cancel next year's Sinulog festivities, my inbox was flooded with questions from friends and relatives (here and abroad) if the mayor was just joking or merely bluffing. As far as I know or the Cebuanos know about Tommy, he always means what he says. And if it takes to be mean to get things his own way, he will do it without batting an eyelash.

The news alone scares away potential visitors. But I don't wish to fault the mayor for coming up with such shocking statement. We all know that there's no stopping the Commission on Audit (COA) to enforce its memo against disbursements by the city government to the Sinulog Foundation after it found that the vice mayor, Mike Rama, is also sitting in the foundation's board which accordingly, is a no-no in COA's rules. Incidentally, Mike is willing to step out of the foundation just to get away with the rules. And I just hope he does for the sake of the province.

Whatever happens next between the City and the COA, I see that there's no stopping the Cebuanos to celebrate the Sinulog even without the city government funds. Pledges are beginning to pour in just to show how the Sinulog means in the hearts and souls of the Cebuanos. These pledges, to me, also represent how Cebuanos spite a stoic bureaucracy, like the COA, whose minds are fixated with rigidity of procedure than consideration for well-meaning endeavors.          

But I tend to look at Sinulog's importance from the economics of the celebration than the religiosity of it. And as to how businesses in the province are going to be affected by the "no show" just in case there won't be any next year.  

I imagine my relatives and friends (from here and abroad) are going to be my first casualties. But that's not important – because they will be here just to eat and run anyway, so they don't add up to the economy.

Levity aside, the real casualties to the no-show will be the tourism sector. We all know that months before the Sinulog, rooms are already booked by returning Filipinos (balikbayans) and foreigners, which on the average, stay for at least two-three days to take advantage of the many events prepared by the city and the provincial government not to mention those private events in hotels and malls.   

I recall the Department of Tourism (DOT) saying last year that the Sinulog, in fact, invites more visitors every year. And by all indications, the number of potential guests come January next year is going to be much higher than before.  

The tourism sector is comprised of a long value chain – from airline to hotel, to public transport to restaurants, to souvenirs to pasalubong, etc. I wish the Hotel Resort and Restaurant Association in Cebu (HRRAC) provide a better insight as to how much we are going to lose in terms of windfall should we decide to just let go of the Sinulog without the fanfare and all.      

The next casualty on my list would be the food business. Cebu's jovial months extend beyond the Holidays. January is surprisingly the only time in Cebu where sales for poultry and meat products are perhaps at its peak. I know this because my parents and neighbors also celebrate the Sinulog each year and lechon is rarely available during this time than Christmas. Prices of lechon manok and meat kaldereta are also unusually high in January than in December.  

Another casualty would be the telecom services. Yes that's right. Telecom companies are quite surprised to learn that the Sinulog generates more voice traffic than Christmas or New Year by as much as 80-100 percent and by as nearly as 200 percent in text messages in Cebu province according to Smart Communications-Visayas PR Officer Jane Paredes in a press interview last year who spoke in behalf of Smart.  

The last casualty would be the Cebuanos themselves. For the last thirty years, the Sinulog represents the Cebuanos' sense of community, history, and faith. Without it, it is like a year without Christmas or New Year.

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