Uneasy on both ends

There are four games left in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup calendar and with TNT still to face Rain or Shine on Friday, the Tropa is yet to clinch a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals despite an 8-3 record. A win over the Elasto Painters will guarantee TNT the No. 2 slot with a 9-3 card.

Meralco has two assignments remaining against Barangay Ginebra tomorrow and Magnolia on Friday. If the Bolts win both, they’ll move up to 9-3 and tie NorthPort at the top. If TNT loses to Rain or Shine, it will be a deadlock for pole position and Meralco will take No. 1 under the winner-over-the-other rule. NorthPort will drop to No. 2. The Bolts beat NorthPort, 111-94, in the elims last Jan. 14 with Akil Mitchell erupting for 30 points.

If TNT beats ROS and Meralco sweeps its last two contests, there will be a triple tie for first as they join NorthPort with the same 9-3 marks. In this scenario, Meralco ends up No. 1 with a +15 margin, TNT No. 2 at -3 and NorthPort slides to No. 3 at -12. If TNT loses to ROS and the Bolts win one of their last two games, both teams will finish at 8-4. This will become complicated because Converge has an 8-4 record with Ginebra and Eastern possibly closing at 8-4, too. The five-way logjam for second will emerge if TNT loses to ROS, Meralco beats Magnolia but loses to Ginebra and Eastern beats NLEX tomorrow. In this set-up, TNT, Converge, Meralco, Ginebra and Eastern will finish with identical 8-4 records. Computing the plus-minus margins won’t be complete until after the Ginebra-Meralco game tomorrow. But at the moment, Eastern is way ahead in the margins race with +30, Converge is next at +10, TNT at -12, Meralco at -13 and Ginebra at -15. So in a five-way tie for second, Eastern zooms up to No. 2 and gains a twice-to-beat edge in the quarterfinals.

Depending on the results of the last four games, NorthPort could hang on to No. 1 or Meralco could dislodge the Batang Pier at the top. TNT or Eastern could finish No. 2. If the battle is tight at the top, the fight to escape elimination is even tighter. Only eight teams will advance to the quarterfinals, meaning five will take an early exit. Eliminated are Phoenix (3-9), Blackwater (3-9) and Terrafirma (1-11). Struggling to stay alive are ROS (6-5), NLEX (5-6), Magnolia (5-6) and San Miguel Beer (5-7). If the Elasto Painters lose to TNT, NLEX beats Eastern and Magnolia upends Meralco, there will be a three-way tie for seventh. In this case, San Miguel is out. NLEX takes No. 7 with a +8 margin while Magnolia (+2) and ROS (-10) will play off for No. 8. If NLEX loses to Eastern and Magnolia bows to Meralco, there will be a three-way deadlock at No. 8. In this case, Magnolia is struck out with a -3 margin while San Miguel (+2) and NLEX (+1) play off for the last quarterfinals ticket.

The last four games will decide the fate of 10 teams so expect dogfights tomorrow and Friday. To recap, the schedule is Eastern against NLEX and Ginebra against Meralco at Smart Araneta tomorrow and Meralco against Magnolia and TNT against Rain or Shine at PhilSports Arena on Friday.