The country went on a roller-coaster ride lately, from inclement global weather conditions to financial markets that went on a roll following US sub-prime mortgage lending issues. Accurate forecasting has become more valuable these days, and only those with a keen eye for details get results.
Several have upped the ante for anticipation and contingency planning, depending on time horizon considered, and likely elements surrounding these circumstances. Similar to “reinforcing fences,” however, this comes at a cost. More than providing flexible methods to weather forecasters in tracking temperature changes through specialized monitoring systems, for example, the important element is that updated tools provide the plus relative to building confidence to help mitigate risks. Simply put, faster solutions are made when people are best equipped.
Realistically, budgets for general businesses are centered on those that provide the fastest ROI (return on investment). Minimal, if not nil, attention has been granted on the backroom side, for simple reasons that these are typically viewed as “cost centers.” The argument among business owners usually boils down to statements such as ‘I should have’ when confronted by worse situations. Macro thinkers, however, are able to view these conditions as “challenges” that will be hurdled, believing that things occur for a valid reason. Business models are tested as these go through peaks and troughs of events, to ensure that systems and procedures are firmly rooted as conditions unfold. True to form, not all can afford the extra spending due mainly to tight budgets. Businesses evolve in cycles, and even the sturdiest ones are not exempt when investment tides change.
When cost and elements linked to anticipated returns are considered, the significance of outsourcing is brought to the fore. Enterprises that go the smarter route are increasing in number, specifically those that have underscored the importance of accountability, not only in instances when inevitable conditions happen. Outsourcing also amplifies appropriate “check-and-balance” procedures, especially when decision-makers need to respond fast to market and/or industry trends/changes.
Let’s take a closer look at key essentials prior to forecasting. First, data must be made available fast. Sifting through countless information available from the Web is a task that forms part of a seasoned expert’s list, especially in winnowing out the most important ones and getting them first-hand from direct sources. Second, variables need to be logically linked (possibly via a mathematical model), especially in establishing correlation and pre-defined timeframe to establish a trend. For example, quarter-on-quarter comparison might be more feasible in case year-on-year data include one-off items. Lastly, recommendations must be outlined given defined objectives. These are usually derived either with affirmation or outlining options in case approaches do not work.
Online equities trading platforms, for one, allow investors to extract data related to their portfolio. Apart from transactional features available in facilities like 2TradeAsia, fund managers can get themselves up-to-date with information tied to securities they own, and view ledgers that detail transactions, estimated capital gain and dividend declarations, to name a few. Linkages with listed firms are also simplified, as the platform can get them linked via the listed issues’ investor relations arm. Research-related inputs are also accessible, especially for those that scout for fundamental merits in specific issues they intend to own. Sophisticated tools are also available (e.g., price charts), that allow investors to examine proper timing in buying and selling securities.
For transactional business-to-business e-Marketplaces like SourcePilipinas.com, negotiation-related documents can be archived, created and retrieved. Supplier selection and accreditation standing can be facilitated, so buyers are kept up-to-date with their business partners. When correlations bet-ween inter-linked variables are established, purchasers can readily decide on negotiation processes, especially when prices are seen to trend higher for the remaining months this year. Less time is required in checking necessary product attributes, and outlining item specifications can enhance processes.
By properly facilitating all administrative-related functions through these platforms, people resources can devote more time in quantifying essentials. So, when major trend reversals happen, think again if you have re-examined contributions from those who work backstage.
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Grace Crisostomo-Cerdenia is the general manager of SourcePilipinas.com and 2TradeAsia.com. For comments or queries, e-mail her at grace.cerdenia@sourcepilipinas.com.