The week ahead

Today is the 55th day of the year. February is 86% complete. Q1 is 61% complete. We’re 15% of the way through the year already! The PSEi gained 0.6% over the past week, but with repeated flirtations with the 5,900s, the way forward feels stressful and more uncertain than usual. The trade wars have been quiet but the 30-day “reprieve” on the sweeping tariffs against Canada and Mexico is coming to an end soon, and we might get some blustery posturing that really messes with the markets. Oh, and the US market just had its worst day in 2025 thanks to increasing inflation fears.

> PH:  Our calendar is basically empty, except for RCR’s dividend payment on Friday. 

> International:  There’s a bit of economic data on Thursday with the US Jobless Claims report, but it feels like other fears have taken center stage. The 30-day trade war reprieve ends on March 5.

  MB BOTTOM-LINE:  It feels hilarious for US media to be in such a panic about the market’s Friday sell-off considering their markets have been so hot for so long and are still near all-time highs, but I think what investors are scared about is the growing consumer belief that inflation will get worse and growing consumer disbelief in Trump’s ability to mitigate that inflation. If you remember back to our own inflation crisis, the BSP seemed more concerned with what people thought inflation would be like in the future than what inflation was actually like in the moment. With good reason. Both the BSP and American investors are worried about “secondary effects” that arise when consumers expect prices to continue going up, like a wage-price spiral (consumers demanding higher wages because prices are too high, and then those higher wages cause prices to go higher), or a shift in spending behavior (like trying to time purchases or put-off purchases). The bottom-line here is that inflation is not solved, and it’s important to operate with the long-term view that this is the “cheapest” that things will be, except for stocks. Some can still get cheaper.

Merkado Barkada is a free daily newsletter on the PSE, investing and business in the Philippines. You can subscribe to the newsletter or follow on Twitter to receive the full daily updates.