Cebu Pacific reports 31% y/y passenger increase in December

Cebu Pacific [CEB 27.85, up 0.5%; 233% avgVol] [link], the Gokongwei Family’s budget airline, reported carrying 2.6 million passengers in December 2024, up 31.4% y/y from December 2023, with a seat load factor (SLF) of 85.2% (up from 84.8%). CEB said that domestic passengers increased 32% (85.4% SLF) and international passengers increased 29% (84.7% SLF). The airline carried 24.5 million passengers in 2024, up 17.6% from 2023. The management team said that the airline is “strategically positioned to take advantage of the Philippines’ economic growth and robust travel demand.”

MB bottom-line: Even if I had hundreds of billions of pesos to burn, I don’t think you could ever convince me to buy or start an airline. That press release from CEB sounds fantastic. If you didn’t have any context and just read that in complete isolation from reality, you’d probably assume based on the fantastic metrics that CEB was doing great and that the future was rosy and bright. Unfortunately for airlines and their shareholders, CEB needs to fly planes in reality, and in reality, fuel prices are high, the US dollar is high (and going higher) interest rates are high (and not coming down), maintenance is more expensive than ever, and new planes are ridiculously difficult to get. So while 2024 CEB might be kicking the crap out of 2023 CEB in terms of how many people it carried and how stuffed its airplanes were, 2023 CEB can still sleep soundly knowing that it was much more profitable, whereas 2024 CEB is likely double-fisting coffees while smashing F5 for the most recent PHP/USD forex price. CEB’s stock price is down 18% over the past year from its “revenge travel” high, and down around 40% from its post-COVID high.