The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will announce its data on the Q4 GDP number at 10 a.m. this morning. This comes a day after the PSA revised its Q3 GDP number of 5.9% upward to 6.0%, and a few days after the BSP’s Governor Eli Remolona [link] said that “strong growth” in Q4 could give the BSP “a bit more room to hike” interest rates in the BSP’s continued fight against inflation. According to BusinessWorld, a poll of 20 economists revealed a median estimate forecast of 5.7% y/y growth in Q4, and a 5.5% GDP growth estimate for the entire 2023.
MB bottom-line: While everyone seems to anticipate inflation and rates coming down in the second half of this year, it’s still not that clear how we get there from here. Not that the outlook is bleak, but that there’s a general lack of clarity on what combination of metrics will unlock the Pivot Key (legendary item). I’ll be watching this one closely. Not so much for the number, but for how everyone will react to it.
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