Bilyonaryo reported insiders as saying that ABS-CBN [ABS 9.90 8.43%] [link] and Manny V. Pangilinan’s Mediaquest (which owns TV5 and Cignal) are in the final stages of negotiation to “combine their resources” for a July 1st launch.
Bilyo reported that ABS “stars” would appear alongside TV5 “talents” under a new station ID, but that there are still some details to iron out related to the supposed overlap between TV5’s “Frontline” and ABS’s “TV Patrol”.
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The rumors have been swirling for quite some time about this “blocktime” arrangement between MVP’s TV5, which has the free TV spectrum, and ABS, which has the country’s greatest catalog of IP and recognizable TV talents.
It would be quite gusty for the new pair to launch their combined efforts on the day following Duterte’s last day in office as the President, but at the same time, it’s not like they’d be able to “hide” a team-up of this size once it actually goes live, so why not just go for it?
The truth is that ABS is slowly running out of runway to salvage what’s left of its value after its franchise renewal was rejected for political reasons, and now word on the street is that Duterte, in his final days, is pressing for the National Telecommunications Commission to hastily draft up rules against such blocktime sharing agreements or mergers.
This entire situation is 100% political, and it always has been, so whatever outcome we get will happen because that’s what the prevailing politics of the situation would allow.
This kind of deal with TV5 is what ABS shareholders need to realize even a fraction of their previous income and influence, but there’s still a huge pile of unknowns and uncertainties that get in the way of trying to price out what this could be worth for ABS.
Any bets here are speculative, so be careful.
We don’t know what the value of the agreement is between TV5 and ABS, we don’t know how applicable the NTC’s last-minute memos will be to the TV5/ABS situation, and we don’t know how resolute the Marcos administration will be in perpetuating the personal attacks of Duterte against ABS when the Duterte appointees are forced to step down and make way for the Marcos appointees.
If you take a position, make sure you think about your position size and your stop levels. There are lots of moving pieces here.
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