Philippines, SEA face worst risk of climate hazards

MANILA, Philippines — Coastal areas in Southeast Asia including the Philippines will be among those worst-hit by climate hazards in the next century if strong mitigation measures are not implemented, a new study conducted by the world’s leading climate change researchers revealed.

The study, published this week in scientific journal Nature Climate Change, assessed how humanity is impacted by the simultaneous occurrence of multiple climate hazards strengthened by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. 

“Most previous studies have focused on a single climate hazard and its intensification due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions,” said co-author Abby Frazier, a fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii. “But when you study the impacts of these hazards individually, you really don’t see the full picture of the total impact of climate change on humanity.”

Co-authored by 23 scientists, the study looked at how different climate hazards such as warming, drought, heatwaves, wildfires, precipitation, floods, storms, sea level rise and changes in land cover and ocean chemistry impact humanity.

It assessed over 12,000 references to determine the impact of these climate hazards on six aspects of human systems, which include health, food, water, infrastructure, economy and security.

The research noted that geographical distributions of individual climate hazards vary worldwide. However, integration of the data revealed how some areas – such as the coastal areas of Southeast Asia – are projected to experience more climate hazards than others.

“When cumulative patterns of change in all hazards are combined, the largest co-occurrence of changes is projected in the tropics, generally isolated to coastal regions,” read the study.

“Coastal areas of Southeast Asia, East and West Africa, the Atlantic coast of South and Central America will be exposed concurrently to the largest changes in up to six climate hazards if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, or three under strong mitigation of greenhouse gases,” it added.

It also noted that the largest losses of human life during extreme climatic events occurred in developing nations, while developed nations are not spared from  adverse impacts.

Lead author Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii said greenhouse gas emissions pose a broad threat to humanity by simultaneously intensifying many hazards that have proven harmful in the past.

“We predict that by 2100 the number of hazards occurring concurrently will increase, making it even more difficult for people to cope,” he said. “The collision of cumulative climate hazards is not something on the horizon, it is already here.”

The researchers stressed the need to implement measures to mitigate the impact cause of rising greenhouse gas emissions.

“Overall, our analysis shows that ongoing climate change will pose a heightened threat to humanity that will be greatly aggravated if substantial and timely reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are not achieved,” they said.