Pagasa sees mild El Niño till midyear

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has advised the public to brace for a weak El Niño condition, which may last until the middle of this year.

The state weather bureau also called on all concerned agencies to take precautionary measures, including better management of water supplies, to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the phenomenon.

In an advisory issued last Monday, PAGASA said latest information from international climate monitoring and prediction institutions indicate that “an El Niño condition is currently ongoing.”

“Consensus among computer models showed that a weak El Niño is likely to manifest in the coming months and is expected to last until the middle of the year,” the agency said.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier said due to the weak El Niño, widespread or significant global weather pattern impacts are not anticipated. 

PAGASA climatologist Anthony Lucero, in an interview with ABS-CBN, said the El Niño condition “may not persist for so long and the impact may not be as significant as we expect.

However, PAGASA is not discounting the possibility of a short dry spell in some parts of the country, Lucero said.

El Niño is the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean and is associated with below normal rainfall.

The government is closely monitoring the phenomenon as it could adversely affect the volume of rainfall and reduce water supply in dams for power and irrigation. 

NOAA forecasters said it is likely (50 to 60 percent chance) that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer.

“Based on the persistent observations of above-average sea surface temperatures across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean and consistent pattern of sea level pressure, we can now say that El Niño is here,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.