Weather forecasts not absolute – DOST exec

MANILA, Philippines - Science and Technology Assistant Secretary Raymund Liboro has advised disaster management agencies to focus more on “communicating uncertainty” to better appreciate the science behind weather forecasts and typhoon warnings issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA) under his department.

Speaking at a panel discussion in a seminar hosted recently by the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) at Discovery Suites Ortigas, Liboro acknowledged that weather forecasts are “not absolute.”

He said making weather updates comprehensible to the layman required more than mere translation into the vernacular.

“The key to communicating typhoon warnings is communicating uncertainty. And the most essential part there is the implicit understanding that forecasts are not absolute and cast in stone. This time, for Typhoon Ruby, DOST-PAGASA presented a variety of scenarios to impress upon the public the many possible ways a typhoon can move, like it has a mind of its own,” he explained.

Liboro also discussed the urgency to come up with ingenious and creative approaches in dealing with emergency situations such as rescue and recovery operations. He recounted the experience in Japan after the great earthquake of 2011, where road-clearing crews were accompanied by deputized audit personnel to hasten the process of issuing fuel vouchers for their trucks and heavy equipment. 

“Nowhere is it more crucial to be able to think out of the box than in disaster risk reduction and management. Buhay kasi ang nakataya dito (Lives are at stake here), and this ability quite literally spells the difference between life and death,” he said. 

The final seminar on Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Capacity Enhancement Project was organized by OCD and JICA to share with stakeholders the final outputs of the three-year project, designed to boost the conduct of DRRM planning and implementation activities along the four thematic areas of prevention and mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery/reconstruction.