171 towns to be flooded if sea level rises - study

LOS BAÑOS, Laguna, Philippines — If much of the world’s ice caps melt, owing to global warming, at least 171 coastal towns in 10 vulnerable provinces in the country will be adversely affected.

A total of 167,290 hectares in these towns will go under water if the sea level rises by one meter, according to an analysis done by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) Climate Change Program.

Cagayan, one of the country’s biggest provinces forming Luzon’s northeastern seaboard whip-lashed at times by the turbulent waters of the Pacific Ocean, will be the most vulnerable if the country’s sea level rises owing to climate change, the study said.

At least 13,134 hectares of seashore lands in 16 Cagayan municipalities will be submerged, it added.

Cagayan is one of the four provinces comprising Cagayan Valley or Region 2; the others are Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.

Next to Cagayan as most vulnerable is Palawan, with 9,146 hectares in 17 towns to go under water following a one-meter sea level rise.

An elongated mass of land, Palawan rises above the waters of the South China Sea in the west and the Sulu Sea in the east.

Iloilo ranks third with 8,647 hectares in 16 towns likely to be inundated. Iloilo is one of the four provinces that form Panay Island; the others are Aklan, Antique, and Capiz.

Zamboanga Sibugay comes fourth with 8,330 hectares in 15 towns, followed by Camarines Sur, with 8,139 hectares in 27 municipalities to be submerged by the waters of the Pacific Ocean and Lagonoy Gulf.

Completing the list of provinces to be most adversely affected by a one-meter sea level rise are Negros Occidental, 7,870 hectares in 25 towns; Capiz, 7,094 hectares in seven towns; Tawi-Tawi, 5,987 hectares in eight towns; Bohol, 5,985 hectares in 24 towns; and Sulu, 5,728 hectares in 19 towns.

The UPLB report further stated that Cagayan is also the most vulnerable in case the country’s sea level rises by two meters as a consequence of global warming: 22,746 hectares in 19 towns will be submerged.

Camarines Sur, one of the six provinces that compose the Bicol region, comes second with 17,039 hectares in 28 towns to be inundated.

It is followed by Palawan, 13,609 hectares in 19 towns; Negros Occidental, 10,768 hectares in 13 towns; Iloilo, 10,709 hectares in 19 towns; Negros Oriental, 10,368 hectares in 25 towns; Capiz, 9,738 hectares in seven towns; Bohol, 9,509 hectares in 27 towns; Northern Samar, 8,654 hectares in 21 towns; and Zamboanga del Sur, 8,349 hectares in 14 towns.

In case the country’s sea level rises by two meters owing to global warming, 264,447 hectares in 180 towns will be submerged.

The UP Los Baños Climate Change Program stressed that in the face of such an eventuality, a comprehensive land use and development plan is needed for the provinces most vulnerable to sea level rise.