The continuing uncertainty in Taiwan

The election of Donald Trump as president has the world wondering what the effect will be on geopolitics. The incoming president has publicly expressed his admiration for Vladimir Putin and his desire to establish friendly relations with Russia. His vice president JD Vance has also publicly stated that he does not think that Ukraine is worth defending.

The situation in the Asia-Pacific Region is very different. Trump has declared that China is the most dangerous adversary of the United States. He has said that he intends to wage an economic war with China, beginning with the 60 percent tariff on all Chinese products imported into the US. His incoming secretary of State Marco Rubio has also stated that he considers China as the preeminent enemy of the United States.

In our part of the world, the Philippines is of course focused on what is happening in the South China Sea. However, for the rest of the world, the most dangerous flash point still remains to be Taiwan. There are three possible scenarios that could happen to this island nation in the coming years.

The United States could make an unequivocal commitment to defend Taiwan. She could also declare officially that the island is not part of China.

The second alternative is to enhance Taiwan’s defenses to such an extent that it would be disastrous for China to invade Taiwan.

This could happen successfully but the cost would be so high that it might not be worth the loss of lives and weaken the Chinese armed forces to such an extent that China might not be able to defend itself against superpowers like the United States and Russia.

The third possible scenario would be a deal with Beijing in which the United States will end its commitment to defending Taiwan, thereby leaving the island nation to stand alone in defending itself. This scenario seems unlikely, even in a Trump administration.

A review of the history of Taiwan reveals that the present geopolitical dilemma could have been avoided except for a series of blunders by previous American presidents.

In 1943, when the allied leaders planned what to do in the post-war world, President Franklin Roosevelt promised Taiwan to Chiang Kai-shek who was then the Nationalist leader of China. At that time, Taiwan was still occupied by Japan. The other proposal then was to make Taiwan either a UN or a US trusteeship. This could have led to the declaration of an independent Taiwan.

After the Second World War, the next US presidents Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower settled on neutrality between the competing claims of Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong. When the United States finally and officially recognized China, it did not require Beijing to agree to an independent Taiwan.

Then, the United States and the Western world also failed to defend an independent Tibet from Chinese invasion. The acknowledged head of Tibet, the Dalai Lama, was forced to go into exile.

Finally, in 1949, the American diplomat George Kennan sent a memo that proposed that the United States should establish an international regime and hold a plebiscite for the people of Taiwan to determine its future. This idea was never accepted by the American government.

If the United States had accepted any of these proposals, it would have led to an independent Taiwan and avoided the present tension.

Instead, the United States has passed what it calls the Taiwan Relations Act wherein it commits to treat “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”

At the same time, America continues with its one-China policy. However, the United States and most of the world, including the Philippines, has adopted the principle that Taiwan’s ultimate status should be resolved through peaceful means and enjoy the support of its people.

President Biden has explicitly stated that the United States would be willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan. The new Trump administration has not publicly stated its own policy on Taiwan.

It should be noted that China’s growing economic and military might means that Beijing in the future may have the capability to invade Taiwan. It may also be willing to accept the cost of an invasion of this island nation.

On the other hand, there is a growing movement for independence among Taiwanese, who last January elected Lai Ching-Te as president who is considered more pro-independence than his predecessors.

The current Taiwanese situation is the result of decades of ambiguity and compromise. Neither Taiwan nor China nor the United States are fully satisfied. Unfortunately, any decision that would fully satisfy one of the parties would be unacceptable to the others. The present diplomatic balancing act will have to continue. The Philippines, whose northernmost island is within eyesight of Taiwan, must be prepared for any eventuality. If Taiwan falls, the Philippines will be the next “flash point” in this part of the world.