Food security, climate change and the Tibetan Plateau

MANILA, Philippines –  Is there a relationship between the distant Himalayas and Philippine food security?

If so, what are the implications on climate change? Let us find out.

First, we review what is being said about the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau as the Third Pole. Second, we will analyze the amount of rice production and surplus from the countries fed by the rivers originating from the Plateau. Third, we will derive implications on ASEAN and Philippine food security.

The Third Pole. The Himalayas, especially the Tibetan Plateau, has vast stores of fresh water in the glaciers. It is of global importance to food security. The Plateau is the source of the several world’s largest rivers and also plays a key role in the Asian weather system.

Changes on the Plateau are crucial for the water resources (irrigation, drinking and hydro-electric power) of most of the Asian continent. Half the world’s population, or three billion people, is dependent upon water from the Plateau.

Consider this: the rivers originating from the Plateau include the Yangtze and Yellow (China), the Mekong (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam), Irrawaddy and Salween (Myanmar), Brahmaputra, Indus, and Sutlej (India), Indus and Sutlej (Pakistan), and Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna (Bangladesh). There are also the Karnali and Arun rivers in Nepal. Karnali feeds the Ganges river. These rivers feed 11 large deltas that have formed along Asia’s coastal zones. The water supply of these rivers would affect millions of Asians.

Climate change is one factor contributing to the shrinking of wetlands at the source of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, reducing the amount of water that flows down the rivers. The Chinese Academy of Science’s Cold and Arid Regions Research Institute studied the Tibetan plateau’s wetlands over a 40-year period and found that they have shrunk by more than 10 percent. The wetlands feeding into the Yangtze River alone have been reduced by 29 percent. Despite increased rainfall in the region, the water level in the wetlands has dropped due to increased evaporation caused by global warming.

Impact on Southeast Asia

Key Southeast Asian rivers which provide water to the world’s rice providers (Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam) will be affected by the changes in the Plateau.

Mekong. The 5,000-kilometer river begins at the Plateau and meanders through China’s Yunnan province, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. It is called the Lancang in China. Together with the Yangtze and Salween Rivers, it originates from the Plateau.

Salween. The 2,800-km river flows from the Plateau to Myanmar. It drains a narrow and mountainous watershed that extends into the countries of China, Myanmar and Thailand.

Irrawaddy. It starts at the confluence of the N’mai and Mali Rivers that are fed by the Himalayan glaciers. It is Myanmar’s largest river and most important commercial waterway. It flows relatively straight North-South before emptying through the Irrawaddy Delta.

Chao Phraya. Thailand’s major river begins at the confluence of the Ping and Nan rivers in Nakhon Sawan province. It flows south for 370 km from the central plains to Bangkok and the Gulf of Thailand. Ping river begins in northern Thailand. Nan river originates from Nan province. This river has no direct link to the Plateau but it could be indirectly affected by the weather system.

The Plateau and Global Rice Supply

The Asian rivers feed the rice lands of Asia. These countries account for about 72 percent of world output. They supply three fourths of world rice export. The rest are mainly supplied from the US, China, Brazil and Argentina, and Uruguay, in that order. Export is currently only seven percent of world production (not four percent as claim by some Philippine sources).

Thailand and Vietnam alone contribute half of the rice surplus of about 30 million tons. Cambodia and Myanmar another 1 million tons each. Cambodia and Myanmar have the potential, if and when developed, for easily 5 million tons.

Implications to Global Food Security

The melting of the Tibetan glaciers will have global repercussions. River flows could eventually decline and cut rice production. These could even spur conflicts among countries regarding water rights. The major rice exporters such as Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Cambodia and Myanmar will have less rice surpluses. China could become a major rice importer. Thailand could have lower surplus, too, as the upper reaches of Chao Phraya will be affected. World rice prices will skyrocket.

Is there a cause for concern due to long term rice shortage following the melting of the Tibetan glaciers? Yes. In this interconnected world (climate and trade-wise), this has already happened in 2008 and seems to be happening in 2010-2011. No, because the human genius has responded to challenges across the centuries. 

Specifically for the Philippines, there is a compelling need for a national food security plan. The plan could cover the following: 

• Push for an ASEAN food security plan that gives rice-deficit countries (Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, etc.) the right of first refusal for the rice exports of Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar.

• Launch productivity drive for all food staples, coupled with marketing information campaign that other food staples (white corn, potato, cassava, banana, and gabi) are as nutritious as rice. Remote communities must attain a high level of food sufficiency due to distance, transport cost and carbon footprint.

• Craft an agenda that combine food security and nutrition security. Energy source from food staples is inadequate and create a false sense of nutrition security.

• Craft watershed management-water supply framework in the context of supply chain of water from source to sea.

• Invest in research and development for rice and diversification of food supply. A key to this is support to the International Rice Research Institute and the Philippines’ Rice Research Institute for drought tolerant and flood-resistant varieties. Access technologies and best practices for crops from the international Center for Research into Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT) in India, the International Center for Potatoes (CIP) in Peru, and (Brazilian Agriculture Research Corp.

The proposed food security plan may also be applicable to other ASEAN countries. This is where ASEAN food security cooperation could take root.