The week ahead

Today is the 41st day of the year. February is 36% cooked, Q1 is nearly half-over, and we are 11% of the way through 2025. The PSEi’s recovery from dipping into the 5000s has stalled out, food inflation is still a problem, and we still don’t really know what will come out of the US in terms of domestic policy or trade wars that could have a material ripple effect on interest rates, exchange rates, and sentiment.

> PH:  Our calendar is empty. DDMPR pays out its Q3 dividend on Friday, and that’s it.

> International:  Aside from being on what feels like 24/7 Trump Watch, we get some American data on Thursday about January inflation/CPI and on Friday about jobless claims that will be interesting. Maybe not from a results perspective, but from a discussion/sentiment perspective, since Trump has been openly critical of the US Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to continue cutting rates. Will these data points support Trump’s take that rates should go lower, or will the data bolster the Fed’s stance? I could see either outcome sparking a greater conflict.

MB BOTTOM-LINE:  Living with Trump operating like a crazy person in another timezone is like having a puppy that randomly chews stuff up at night while you sleep. It becomes a habit to treat every morning’s first few minutes as a status check for damage, to get a feel for what problems that you’ll have to deal with throughout the day. That’s how it feels to live across the ocean during a Trump presidency. The only restful morning is Monday, since that’s Sunday for the Americans and Trump doesn’t seem to be as chaotically active during that time. I’ve quickly learned to make use of this quiet time to plan my personal, professional, and trading week.     

Merkado Barkada is a free daily newsletter on the PSE, investing and business in the Philippines. You can subscribe to the newsletter or follow on Twitter to receive the full daily updates.