Recto: Philippines misses 2024 growth target

Spate of typhoons battered economy

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may have missed even the lower end of its economic growth target last year due to the detrimental effects of the series of typhoons on the economy, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said.

Recto said the country’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 would be below six percent. The government had set a growth target of six to seven percent for last year.

“We probably did not hit our growth targets in 2024 because of the numerous typhoons. It is possibly below six percent. Because today we are already at 5.8 (percent). We are below six (percent) already as of the third quarter,” Recto said in a recent press briefing.

The finance chief, nonetheless, said the fourth quarter GDP growth would be faster than the third quarter economic performance.

“(It is) possible that the six percent GDP growth would be hit in the fourth quarter,” Recto said.

“If it hits six percent in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that. I don’t think it will hit six percent for 2024, but I think it will surpass six percent in 2025,” he added.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan earlier said the economy needed to grow by at least 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter to achieve the government’s growth target.

“We remain optimistic that this growth target is attainable,” he said, noting expected increases in holiday spending, more stable commodity prices, lower interest rates and a robust labor market.

While the Philippines is not likely to hit last year’s growth target, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said the economy is forecast to again outperform many of its regional peers in terms of growth.

She said the third quarter GDP result puts the economy on track to grow by 5.8 percent in 2024.

The country’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter of 2024 to 5.2 percent as weather disturbances affected agricultural output and the performance of other production sectors. The economy grew by 6.4 percent in the second quarter of last year and six percent in the third quarter of 2023.

The World Bank earlier downscaled its economic growth forecast for the Philippines for 2024 following the slower-than-expected gross domestic product growth in the third quarter, but expects the economy to post faster economic growth this year.

The World Bank said it revised downward the growth forecast for the country to 5.9 percent in 2024 from the earlier forecast of six percent.