Here is my list of the most significant power and energy stories for 2024. The first five are global and the next five are specific to the Philippines.
1. World coal consumption continues to rise.
Despite the Paris Agreement in 2015 and prolonged global anti-coal campaigns, world coal consumption remains on an upward trend. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy released by the Energy Institute in June 2024, global coal consumption increased from 113.4 exajoules (EJ) in 2003 to 157.2 EJ in 2015 and further to 164 EJ in 2023. (Note: 1 EJ = 277.78 TWh of electricity)
2. Same trend of rising global consumption of oil and gas.
Oil consumption grew from 160.5 EJ in 2003 to 183.5 EJ in 2015 to 196.4 EJ in 2023. In terms of million barrels per day, usage rose from 79.9 mbpd in 2003 to 92.8 mbpd in 2015, and to 100.2 mbpd in 2023. Natural gas consumption increased from 90.6 EJ in 2003 to 125.1 EJ in 2015 and to 144.4 EJ in 2023.
3. Nuclear energy consumption is flat; solar and wind are rising but insignificant.
Global nuclear use is generally flat from 26.5 EJ in 2003, 23.4 EJ in 2013 and 24.6 EJ in 2023. Solar increased from 1.4 EJ in 2013 to 15.4 EJ in 2023; wind increased from 6.2 EJ in 2013 to 21.8 EJ in 2023. But such expansion in solar and wind is simply add-on, not substitution, to continued use of coal and hydrocarbons gas and oil.
4. Election of Trump and resumption of US “drill baby drill,” “energy dominance” policies.
US LNG exports were only four billion cubic meters (bcm) at the end of Obama’s second term in 2016. Under Trump 1.0 it quadrupled to 17 bcm in 2017, 61 bcm by 2020. Under Trump 2.0, US LNG exports are expected to jump up to 160 bcm or more.
5. Decarbonization leading to degrowth is affirmed.
From 2010 to 2023, coal's share of total power generation declined significantly in Germany (41.5 percent to 24.9 percent), the UK (28.2 percent to 1.2 percent) and Canada (13.8 percent to 3.7 percent). Correspondingly, their GDP growth from 2013 to 2023 averaged only 1.1 percent, 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
In contrast, Asian countries, where coal usage increased, experienced robust GDP growth. From 2013 to 2023, average GDP growth was 6.1 percent in China, six percent in India and Vietnam, and five percent in the Philippines.
6. ERC chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta suspension and reinstatement.
Last September 5, the Ombudsman suspended ERC chair Monalisa Dimalanta following a flimsy complaint from a fake consumer group. Prominent professional and business organizations, such as the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Management Association of the Philippines, expressed concern over the decision, indirectly criticizing the Ombudsman. Dimalanta has since been reinstated.
7. NEA and inefficient electric cooperatives (ECs) highlighted.
In 2020 alone, the National Electrification Administration (NEA) used up P12.9 billion of taxpayers money, another P2 to P3 billion per year from 2021 to 2025, and sent to inefficient ECs nationwide. This year, issues with Batangas Electric Cooperative I and II and Northern Davao Electric Cooperative highlighted these inefficiencies.
8. Push for nuclear energy gains momentum.
In March, a Philippine Nuclear Trade Mission to Canada was organized by the Canadian Embassy in Manila. News stories this year highlighted significant developments, including Meralco’s nuclear energy initiatives and partnerships with South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility Co. and Samsung C&T Corp.
9. Collaboration on LNG development among top energy companies.
San Miguel Global Power, Aboitiz Power and Meralco Power Gen Corp. partnered to develop two LNG plants with capacities of 1,200 MW and 1,760 MW, along with an LNG import and regasification terminal in Batangas. The Philippine Competition Commission approved the $3.3 billion deal on December 23.
10. Ongoing yellow-red alerts expose regulatory challenges.
Power supply issues, such as delays in approving Power Supply Agreements (PSAs) and Ancillary Services Procurement Agreements (ASPAs) by the ERC, have contributed to recurring yellow and red alerts. Concerns include the ERC’s decade-old secondary price cap of P6.25 per kWh at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market and limitations on retail electricity supply.
Related to item number five above, coal plants here have been winning CSPs and offering cheap electricity. For instance, in the 600 MW baseload capacity CSP by Meralco last August, winners were SMC’s Masinloc Power and Aboitiz Power’s GNPower Dinginin with all-in rates of P5.60 per kWh and P5.74 per kWh, respectively, way below Meralco’s reserved price for levelized cost of electricity set at P7.26 per kWh.