Agrees with market consensus
MANILA, Philippines — Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, who also sits on the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), said he agrees with market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut during the policy meeting today. “There’s a great possibility,” Recto told reporters in an informal chat. “I agree with the market consensus of a 25-basis-point decrease.”
Recto clarified that he is not bound by the central bank’s “quiet period” ahead of monetary policy decisions, which prohibits members from commenting publicly on monetary policy matters.
“I’m not covered by that. I’m secretary of finance,” Recto said.
The BSP is widely expected to bring down its key policy rate by 25 basis points during its Monetary Board meeting today, according to a poll of analysts conducted last week.
The central bank delivered a 25-basis-point cut last Oct. 16, bringing the total cuts to 50 bps since it began its easing cycle in August.
Prior to the cuts, the BSP kept its policy rate steady for six straight meetings since November 2023. From May 2022 to October 2023, it hiked rates by 450 bps to tame inflation.
According to Recto, lower interest rates could spur investments and consumption, supporting the Philippines’ growth targets for 2025.
He said that the potential for the economy to hit the upper range of its six to eight percent growth goal next year may be realized if government reforms, such as the CREATE MORE Act successfully attract more investments.
On the outlook for further monetary easing in 2025, Recto said a total reduction of 75 basis points next year is a reasonable expectation, although the trajectory will depend on inflation trends and the policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve.
“My position was for a 100-basis-point reduction, but it really depends on what happens globally,” he said.
While the timing of additional cuts remains uncertain, Recto said that a favorable monetary environment would complement fiscal efforts to sustain economic momentum.
“The Monetary Board will carefully review all the data,” he added, underscoring the importance of data-driven decision-making for future policy actions.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. earlier said that inflationary pressures might prompt the Monetary Board to maintain interest rates at its Dec. 19 meeting.
However, Remolona also noted that the board could weigh the option of another rate cut to bolster slow economic growth.
The economy grew by 5.2 percent in the third quarter, slower than the 6.4 percent in the previous quarter and six percent a year ago. From January to September, growth averaged 5.8 percent.