Palay output seen falling 12% in Q3

MANILA, Philippines — Palay production in the third quarter could fall by 12 percent on an annual basis to below 3.4 million metric tons (MT) as farmers cut back on their planting areas following the ill effects of extreme weather conditions.

Latest Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) forecast showed that unmilled rice output from July to September may have settled at 3.35 million MT, about 11.9 percent lower than the 3.8 million MT recorded volume in the same period last year.

The foreseen contraction in planted areas forced the PSA to revise downward its palay projections for the third straight month. The latest output forecast is 40,000 MT lower than the PSA’s first projection for the third quarter palay output of 3.39 million MT.

The latest estimate could also be the lowest third quarter palay output in the past five years or since 2019 when July to September production fell to 3.05 million MT, based on historical PSA data.

The PSA estimated that total palay harvest area in the third quarter, based on standing crop as of Sept. 1, shrank by 14.1 percent to 796,280 hectares from 926,920 hectares recorded last year.

“Based on standing crop for the period July to September 2024, the yield per hectare of palay may increase to 4.2 metric tons or by 2.4 percent from the previous year’s same period yield per hectare of 4.1 metric tons,” the PSA said.

About 310,780 hectares or at least 339 percent of the total standing crop have been harvested, resulting in 1.31 million MT of palay output, according to the PSA.

The PSA added that 16.5 percent of the 485,500 hectares of remaining standing crop that are yet to be harvested are already in the reproductive stage while the remaining area were at maturing stage.

If the forecast of the PSA for the third quarter palay output materializes, the country’s palay production from January to September would reach at least 11.88 million MT, which is 7.4 percent lower than last year’s 12.824 million MT recorded volume during the same nine-month period.

Pundits earlier noted that domestic rice production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions such as El Nino and La Nina, resulting in lower yield or shrinkage in planted area.