The week ahead

The PSEi has been up above 7,000 for so long now that it’s almost starting to feel comfortable. Almost. I don’t see anything on the calendar that could trip us up, but I don’t see any catalysts for higher highs there either.

> PH:  Today is the first day of the Filinvest Land [FLI 0.82 ?1.2%; 146% avgVol] tender offer, which will run through to the end of October. Today is also the last day of the Ayala Corp [AC 715.00 ?2.7%; 121% avgVol] preferred shares offer period. We originally had the listing of the DITO CME [DITO 1.89 ?1.1%; 146% avgVol] follow-on offering, but they deferred that sale for lack of interest at its preferred price point. BDO Capital said the sale could still happen in November, but it will probably come down to price (like everything).

> International:  Lots of US-based data and sentiment to consume this week. The minutes of the Fed’s September FOMC meeting will be released on Thursday morning, and then on Friday, we get an updated jobless claims report and US September CPI/inflation data. There will be several speeches by monetary policymakers throughout the week. They’re usually boring, but sometimes we can pick interesting bits out of the trash.

MB BOTTOM-LINE:  If this is your first bull market, I just want to say: welcome to investing! But I also want you to understand that the way stocks are moving right now–the big jumps and the thick volume–that’s not how it’s always going to be. I urge you to ignore the (very human) compulsion to look at the stock market like it's a roulette wheel, with each square representing an equal chance to “hit”. Don’t just spray your chips on numbers that look cool. Or your parents’ birthdays. Or the number of Funko Pops you own. That's the best way to end up with a PSEi Bull Market 2024 souvenir. While the PSEi is generally considered a stock-picker’s market, the thing that often goes unsaid is that it’s a stock-picker’s market for people with insider information or those with the experience necessary to spot the opportunities. If you’re coming to the market with the idea that lower interest rates and lower reserve ratios will propel our market to higher highs, then there’s no harm in simply putting your money into the PSE’s only index fund, FMETF [FMETF 119.50 ?0.4%; 57% avgVol], which you can buy through any broker just like any other stock. It largely tracks the value of the PSEi, and is a decent “default” to pursue the “time in the market is better than timing the market” approach to investing. 

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