We must be doing something right even though we all feel that the cost of living has gotten more expensive, as some foreign economists still see the Philippines as performing better economically than some of its peers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three.
In its latest quarterly update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 percent in 2024 and improve to 4.4 percent in 2025 in its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO). Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, AMRO said would remain the key drivers of growth.
The latest 2024 forecast for the ASEAN+3 region represents a slight downward revision from the July 2024 AREO update forecast of 4.4 percent, primarily due to adjustments for China and Vietnam. The plus-3 economies (China, Hong Kong (China), Japan and Korea) are projected to grow at 4.1 percent, while ASEAN is expected to expand by 4.7 percent this year.
In its updated report, AMRO revised downward its 2024 growth projections for China to five percent from its July projection of 5.3 percent. Similarly, projections for Hong Kong, China were also brought down from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent. For our ASEAN peers Indonesia and Vietnam, their growth projections for this year were adjusted downward to 5.1 percent from 5.2 for Indonesia, and for Vietnam from 6.3 to 6.2 percent.
The Philippines, however, was seen maintaining its projected 6.1 percent growth by AMRO for this year even as the International Monetary Fund, on the other hand, projects a more significant decline in growth this year to 5.8 percent from its earlier projection of six percent.
The IMF based its lower growth calculation on the assumption that private consumption has slowed down, something that I feel and have observed in terms of my now frequent visits to shopping malls.
AMRO expects the ASEAN+3 region growth to strengthen to 4.4 percent in 2025, aligning with expectations of stable external demand and resilient domestic demand amid easier financial conditions.
The Philippines’ projected growth of 6.3 percent for next year, along with most of our ASEAN peers’ growth projection, except for Thailand and Vietnam, has been maintained.
AMRO sees Thailand growing faster in 2025 at 3.3 percent from its July projection of just three percent. Likewise, Vietnam is also projected to grow much faster next year at 6.6 percent from 6.5 percent.
“Recent developments have shifted the risk landscape for the ASEAN+3 region,” according to AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor. “The sharp but short-lived market adjustments that we witnessed in early August are a reminder of the risk of further spikes in financial market volatility. The potential escalation of protectionist policies following the US presidential election is another key risk for the region.”
Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region – excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar – is forecast to moderate to 1.9 percent this year, slightly lower than the July forecast of 2.1 percent. Overall, inflationary pressure remains well contained in the region, in line with the expectation of easing global inflation.
Recent US economic indicators, AMRO said, have sparked some concerns for the region. Continued weakness in the US labor market and purchasing managers index figures have raised fears of a sharper growth slowdown, potentially impacting regional exports.
The November US election outcome, it added, could also significantly affect the region’s economic outlook, particularly if it signals an intensification of US-China trade tensions or broader trade frictions.
“An increasing number of central banks worldwide have begun easing monetary policy, and China has recently announced a broad set of stimulus measures to support its economy. These actions will have positive spillover effects on the rest of the region,” Dr. Khor said. “However, rising external and geopolitical uncertainties underscore the need to continue strengthening resilience and enhancing cooperation in the region.”
Marketing star wars
With consumption being a key factor in pushing economic growth, the country’s marketing sector is trying to find ways to adapt to changing industry trends and continually evolving technology and how to address this generation’s concern for sustainability amid the changing global climate.
The Philippines is set to host the 4th World Marketing Forum and the 53rd National Marketing Conference next month, on Nov. 6 and 7, at the Newport Performing Arts Theatre, Newport World Resorts in Pasay City, with an attendance of 1,700 marketing professionals and industry leaders worldwide.
The two-day conference will tackle the clash between human ingenuity and advanced technology, aiming to learn how marketing professionals can use human creativity alongside machine or artificial intelligence.
According to overall conference chairperson Donald Patrick Lim, who is also president of DITO CME, “the two marketing events go beyond simply exchanging ideas; they serve as a battleground where strategies are put to the test and new paradigms are shaped.”
Lim explained that the theme of this year’s conference was based on the intergenerational wars involving five generations from the baby boomers or those born between 1946 and 1964, Gen X or those born from 1965 to 1980, the millennials or Gen Y who were born from 1981 to 1996, Gen Z who were born from 1996 to 2012, and Gen Alpha or those born from 2013 to 2025.
He cited the generational difference in marketing approach in which the older generation of baby boomers had to master and learn about their customers, as opposed to the current generation that now has AI to ease the burden and even facilitate drawing up marketing plans and strategies.
Thus, Lim said, this year’s theme also took note of the war for technology supremacy and the growing importance of sustainability.
Kathy Mercado, the current president of the Philippine Marketing Association, said that the PMA’s goal this year is “to highlight the balance marketers must strike between the creativity of the human spirit and the capabilities of technology. By exploring how we can blend human insight with machine intelligence, we hope to empower our participants to develop strategic solutions for today’s complex marketing challenges.”