What it takes to safeguard Philippines' 2016 arbitral win from political shifts

MANILA, Philippines — Senate President Francis Escudero on Wednesday urged the solicitor general to explore ways to secure the 2016 arbitral ruling, which affirms the Philippines’ claim to the West Philippine Sea, against potential policy changes by future administrations.

Escudero raised the issue during the Department of Justice's 2025 budget hearing, suggesting that mechanisms might exist to recognize and enforce the arbitral award through a legal ruling.

He further noted that if a law were enacted to enforce the arbitral award, any sitting president would be obligated to uphold it.

“It is precisely to bind and tie the hands on whoever our chief executive [is]... he cannot change policies simply because he’s the chief architect of our foreign policy,” he said.

What the process entails

Guevarra said that while the process is currently under study, he noted that the Supreme Court might refrain from ruling on the issue, as it is political in nature.

He suggested that the initiative should come from the president or through Congress.

“In these types of cases, state versus state, it really depends on the political will of the state concerned. If we approach the Supreme Court for enforcement or acknowledgment... we may be faced with certain major procedural issues like for example, do we have jurisdiction… or how do we enforce it?” Guevarra said.

According to Article 8 of the Civil Code, judicial decisions that interpret laws or the Philippine Constitution become part of the country’s legal system. But the Supreme Court cannot rule on political questions or matters where full decision-making authority has been delegated to the legislative or executive branches of government.

In a separate message to Philstar.com, Guevarra mentioned that a more “stable” and permanent policy should be established by Congress.

“In fact, Congress is already incorporating the Hague ruling in the Maritime Zones Bill and the Archipelagic Sealanes Bill,” Guevarra said.

The solicitor general also stressed that preserving the 2016 arbitral ruling ultimately depends on the “sovereign people.”

“We should make sure to elect leaders who will indubitably recognize the gains of the arbitral ruling and will seek to enforce it in whatever ways possible,” Guevarra added.

What went before: 'A mere piece of paper'

In 2016, the UN Arbitral Tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines, affirming the country’s sovereign rights to explore and exploit both the living and non-living natural resources within 200 nautical miles of its mainland, including the water column and the seabed.

China, however, dismissed this ruling, asserting its nine-dash line claim over the area, which also encroaches on the sovereign rights of other Southeast Asian nations.

This dispute has led to tensions between China and the Philippines, sometimes escalating to incidents involving the ramming of vessels and the firing of water cannons on Philippine ships.

Following the Philippines' victory in the arbitral tribunal, the administration of former President Rodrigo Duterte adopted a more conciliatory approach toward China. On one occasion, Duterte downplayed the ruling as a mere “piece of paper.”

There were also reports of a “gentleman’s agreement” between Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping to “manage the situation” in the disputed area, though Duterte has denied this. — with reports from Jean Mangaluz