Philippines fixed line market to hit $4.7 billion by 2028

MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos are keeping their cable lines connected for at least until the end of the decade, and this is seen to expand the fixed communication market by five percent annually until 2028.

The fixed line market is expected to survive, and even thrive, in the Philippines in the long term, even as more and more Filipinos are connecting to the internet through mobile.

GlobalData forecasts that fixed communication services in the country would grow by more than five percent yearly until they hit $4.7 billion in 2028 from $3.7 billion in 2023.

GlobalData telecom analyst Srikanth Vaidya said the market would be driven primarily by demand for broadband bundles. Based on GlobalData’s estimates, the fixed voice industry will grow flat until 2028, while broadband will increase by six percent during the period.

Moreover, Vaidya said telco players will benefit from the national push to go digital, as this will drive consumers to take on better but pricier internet subscriptions. For telcos, this means that their average revenue per subscriber (ARPS) would go up over time.

In 2023, fiber connections in the Philippines accounted for 70 percent of broadband subscriptions of the population.

GlobalData believes that additional investments to be made by the public and private sectors will push the fiber share up to 85 percent of the broadband market.

“Growth in fixed broadband service revenues will be driven by the steady increase in broadband subscriptions, especially higher ARPS yielding fiber broadband subscriptions,” Vaidya said.

Within the domestic industry, telco leader PLDT Inc. is expected to top the competition for fixed voice through 2028.

The telco is also expected to overwhelm its rivals in the broadband space, as it is committed to spend more capital on expansion projects.

PLDT is setting aside as much as P78 billion for capital expenditures this year, beating the P55-billion allocation of its closest rival Globe Telecom Inc. PLDT plans to invest the bulk of its capex for broadband expansion, particularly for fiber laying.

“PLDT will lead the fixed voice services segment in terms of subscriptions through 2028, [and] the operator will also top the fixed broadband services market, by subscriptions, supported by its strong position in DSL and FTTH [fiber to the home] service lines,” Vaidya said.

“PLDT has earmarked a capex of around P75 billion to P78 billion in 2024, a significant portion of which it will be used to upgrade and expand its fiber broadband network and gain from wider coverage of FTTH services,” Vaidya added.