MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may produce a record-high volume of palay or unmilled rice this year of almost 21 million metric tons (MT) despite threats of El Niño on local farms, estimates from the Department of Agriculture showed.
The DA projected that palay output could reach 20.881 million MT this year, four percent more than the 20.059 million MT last year, based on its outlook as of March 21.
The DA’s latest outlook showed that palay output could reach 7.667 million MT in the first half and 7.976 million MT in the second half.
The estimated increase in overall palay production this year is about 880,000 MT, which translates to almost 540,000 MT additional rice stocks for the country.
In rice terms, the full-year palay production target of the government is equivalent to 13.656 million MT, according to documents obtained by The STAR.
The DA has been banking on the expanded use of high-quality rice seeds, better application of fertilizers and lower post-harvest losses in boosting domestic rice production.
Based on its estimates, the DA is looking at a total rice supply this year of about 16.745 million MT, of which 2.027 million MT were carry-over stocks from last year.
The projected total rice supply by the DA only includes an actual import volume of around 1.061 million MT so far.
But based on its estimates, the total rice supply is sufficient to meet the country’s total requirement even if the country will not import rice in the remaining quarters.
The DA puts the country’s total rice requirement at 15.643 million MT, with 13.973 million MT for human consumption.
Given this situation, the country is expected to end the year with 1.101 million MT rice stocks, good to last for at least 29 days, based on the DA’s computations.
The DA earlier disclosed that the country has to keep a 50-day buffer stock or about 1.85 million MT of rice to ensure food security and stable grain prices.
The country’s rice production “seems to be OK” despite the presence of El Niño this year, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. recently said.
Agriculture officials have noted that the department’s timely water management interventions mitigated the ill effects of El Niño on rice farms.
Furthermore, the DA said El Niño happened when farmers were already harvesting, sparing them from incurring losses due to the drier weather.
Since local rice production could increase this year, Tiu Laurel pointed out that the country’s total rice imports this year may not hit the 4.1 million MT projection by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Tiu Laurel emphasized that USDA’s rice import projection for the Philippines is a “worst-case scenario.”
He noted that El Niño may continue to impact local rice production in the second quarter but expected that harvest would be “okay” after the dry season.
“We are hoping [that] there is an increase in production of rice from the previous year this 2024,” Tiu Laurel said.
Last month, the Philippine Statistics Authority projected that the country’s first quarter palay output would grow slightly to 4.83 million MT from 4.78 million MT last year.